Tajikistan's economy has demonstrated significant growth in recent years, with an expansion of 8.3% in 2023 and 8.2% in early 2024, according to the World Bank’s latest Tajikistan Economic Update released today. The report attributes this growth to increased revenues from gold exports and substantial public infrastructure spending. Additionally, robust worker remittances and public wage increases have bolstered domestic demand, contributing to overall poverty reduction.
The report notes that Tajikistan has managed to control inflation through a combination of declining global food and fuel prices and tighter monetary policy. High disbursement of external grants has supported the fiscal position, leading to a reduction in public debt levels. However, the economic outlook faces challenges with more subdued growth projected at 6.5% in 2024 and 4.5% in the medium term due to sluggish growth in key trading partners such as China, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Türkiye, along with domestic reform inertia.
Potential risks include the escalation of global and regional tensions and stricter migration policies in Russia. The report advises that for sustainable development, Tajikistan needs structural reforms focused on enhancing economic openness and competitive neutrality while improving public sector governance, transparency, and accountability for better service delivery. It also emphasizes promoting adaptation measures to mitigate climate change impacts and strengthening economic resilience against natural disasters.
“Tajikistan's recent economic performance is commendable, but sustaining this momentum will require concerted efforts to address structural challenges to ensure competition among all economic players,” said Ozan Sevimli, World Bank Group Country Manager for Tajikistan. "Embracing fair competition and competitive neutrality between state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the private sector is vital for fostering innovation, driving efficiency, and ensuring that all players can thrive on a level playing field," he added.
The update highlights the significant influence of SOEs in Tajikistan’s economy. With over 1,000 registered SOEs—more than 600 being majority state-owned—these entities hold prominent positions in key sectors such as mining, energy, and telecoms. The top ten SOEs account for 97% of total SOE assets; however, most are unprofitable. In 2023 alone, the top 25 SOEs incurred a net loss of TJS 4.2 billion (3.2% of GDP), posing fiscal risks.
To address these challenges, well-defined policies are needed to ensure competitive fairness and transparent state aid while encouraging equitable competition. By creating a level playing field for investors, Tajikistan can unlock its economic potential and foster private sector growth toward sustainable development.
The Summer 2024 Tajikistan Economic Update is available here.
The World Bank is currently financing 25 projects in Tajikistan totaling $1.58 billion. Since 1996, it has provided over $2.94 billion in IDA grants, highly concessional credits, and trust funds for Tajikistan.