Tajikistan's economy continued its rapid expansion in 2024, with real GDP growth reaching 8.4%, according to the latest annual Tajikistan Economic Update released by the World Bank. This pace nearly matched the previous year's performance, driven mainly by strong gains in services and industry sectors.
The report highlights that higher domestic consumption and investment offset a significant 20.5% decline in exports, largely attributed to reduced shipments of precious metals and cotton. The economic momentum was sustained by substantial remittance inflows, which peaked at 49% of GDP in 2024—up from 39% in 2023—and increased public sector wages. In the first quarter of 2025, the country maintained a robust trajectory with an 8.2% growth rate.
Poverty reduction has been notable over recent years, with national poverty rates falling from 21.7% in 2022 to an estimated 20.4% in 2023. About 35% of households experienced upward mobility, primarily due to remittances and rising labor incomes from services and agriculture sectors. However, inequality remains a concern; since 2021, rural areas have seen a rise in inequality, reflected by a Gini coefficient of 39 in 2023. This trend is linked to uneven distribution of remittances and differences in education levels across regions.
Looking ahead, economic growth is projected to moderate but remain positive: forecasts suggest real GDP will slow to 7.0% in 2025, then ease further to 4.9% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027 as remittance flows normalize.
The outlook faces several risks related to Russia’s labor migration policies, global policy shifts, and regional conflicts. The report notes that sustaining strong economic performance will depend on attracting private investment, improving public sector efficiency and accountability, and strengthening climate resilience.
A special focus of this year’s update is the digital transformation of trade in Tajikistan. The report states that digital innovation can help the landlocked country overcome geographic barriers by reducing trade costs by more than 13%, while increasing efficiency and market access through updated processes and new forms of digital commerce.
Despite progress toward digitalization of trade processes, Tajikistan still lags behind other countries in e-participation, online services availability, internet penetration rates, telecommunications infrastructure, and overall technological readiness. Projections indicate that Tajikistan’s e-commerce market will grow at an annual rate of only about 4.7% between 2025 and 2029—reaching $28.4 million by the end of that period.
The report points out that international evidence shows strong digital trade regulations can cut goods trade costs by up to one-fifth and service costs by up to one-third (https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tajikistan/publication/economic-update-spring-2025). However, Tajikistan’s legal framework for digital commerce remains incomplete: while there are basic electronic documentation laws on record, key elements such as digital identity systems, paperless trade provisions, data protection measures, security standards, and consumer safeguards are missing or underdeveloped.
Specific recommendations include addressing gaps related to data subject rights (such as those found under data protection laws), clarifying consent protocols for data use, establishing breach notification requirements for businesses handling personal information, expanding broadband infrastructure across the country (to improve connectivity), enforcing cybersecurity standards for all digital transactions (to enhance security), creating comprehensive data protection laws aligned with international norms (to build trust), modernizing government-provided digital services (for greater accessibility), developing institutional expertise within relevant agencies (for effective oversight), integrating various components into a unified trade ecosystem (for improved coordination), implementing performance monitoring mechanisms (to track progress), strengthening legal frameworks with internationally recognized standards (to support cross-border commerce), and establishing trust mechanisms essential for widespread adoption.
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