Tajikistan's economy showed strong growth in 2024, with real GDP increasing by 8.4 percent and maintaining a similar pace at 8.2 percent in the first quarter of 2025, according to the World Bank’s annual Tajikistan Economic Update. The expansion was largely driven by gains in services and industry.
Remittance inflows played a significant role, rising to about 49 percent of GDP in 2024 from 39 percent the previous year. Increased public sector wages also contributed to domestic demand.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projects that economic growth will moderate to 7.0 percent in 2025 and gradually settle between 4.5 and 5.0 percent for the years 2026–27. This outlook is shaped by expectations of normalized remittance flows, ongoing uncertainties in global trade that may disrupt supply chains, and weaker demand for metals and minerals except gold.
The report notes that continued strong performance will require reforms aimed at attracting more private investment. These include strengthening competition laws, simplifying investment procedures, improving investor protection rights, and boosting efficiency and accountability within the public sector.
Digital transformation is identified as an area where Tajikistan lags behind regional peers despite its potential benefits for trade facilitation and economic integration. The report highlights infrastructure gaps such as poor internet connectivity at nearly half of customs checkpoints, as well as regulatory deficiencies related to digital identity systems, paperless trade processes, data protection standards, cross-border data transfers, security protocols, and consumer safeguards.
“Tajikistan stands at a crucial juncture in its economic development, where smart digital transformation can positively shape its trade prospects for years to come,” said Bakhrom Ziyaev, the World Bank Senior Economist for Tajikistan and author of the report. “By prioritizing these reforms, Tajikistan has the potential to significantly facilitate trade and digitalization of the economy thus unlocking substantial economic growth, generating new high-value employment opportunities, and enhancing its integration into the regional and global digital economy.”
To accelerate digitalization efforts in Tajikistan’s trade sector, priority areas include improving digital connectivity and cybersecurity measures; modernizing government online services; creating integrated platforms for seamless trade operations; implementing systems for performance monitoring; aligning legal frameworks with international electronic transaction standards; establishing trust mechanisms through robust consumer protection rules; enhancing cybersecurity protocols; and developing institutional expertise within both government agencies and trading entities.
The World Bank continues its support of Tajikistan through financing programs totaling $1.9 billion across 26 active projects aimed at reducing poverty levels while promoting sustainable development initiatives throughout the country.