In its 70th edition of the Equity Gilt Study, Barclays Research reviewed the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on global economic structures. The study, conducted by analysts at Barclays, explores AI's influence on supply chains, labor markets, and the imminent future of work.
"AI is already changing many aspects of the modern economy and financial markets and will continue to do so for years to come," stated Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research at Barclays. He added, "The end result promises to be fascinating – and most likely a net positive for the world at large."
Barclays Research underscores the geopolitical vulnerabilities linked to the concentrated global reliance on certain countries for crucial rare earth minerals and skilled professionals. They caution that this reliance threatens supply chain stability, particularly amidst increasing geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and shocks related to climate change.
From an employment perspective, Barclays' data from eight years show that AI's overall employment impact is currently modest. However, what has changed are the expectations for skills and tasks, particularly in high-paid, white-collar jobs. As more sectors adopt AI, the researchers foresee significant macroeconomic consequences.
The report also draws parallels to previous technological shifts, noting the potential of AI to affect investment returns similar to past revolutions such as durable goods post-World War II, the internet in the 1990s, and the 2010s data boom. AI may influence equities, apply upward pressure on yields, and lead to a moderately stronger dollar.
Furthermore, the study references the emergence of China's DeepSeek as a pivotal moment for the United States and other advanced economies, prompting fresh investments in AI infrastructure. Analysts see the capital expenditure competition continuing, driven by the considerable computing power new AI tasks require.
Barclays' Equity Gilt Study provides a blend of wide-ranging macro analysis and a dataset extending over a century, offering insights into long-term asset returns in the UK and the US. The UK data stretches back to 1899, while the US data, sourced from the University of Chicago's Center for Research in Security Prices, begins in 1925.