Recent rains in Northern Queensland have temporarily halted further cattle sell-offs amidst declining national herd numbers, as reported in ANZ's latest Agri Commodity Report.
ANZ Associate Director of Agribusiness Research, Courteney Kemp, commented, "While Tropical Cyclone Alfred brought disruption to the Queensland cattle market and southern producers battle dry conditions, the rainfall experienced in Northern Queensland has helped many producers retain stock they would have otherwise turned off."
Kemp added, "Ongoing export opportunities, combined with solid production levels, should see herd numbers come down in coming years, as the industry appears to have reached its peak herd numbers for the moment."
The ANZ Autumn 25 Commodity Insights report reveals that recent beef slaughter data indicates the national herd is undergoing liquidation, highlighted by the female slaughter ratio reaching 52.2 percent in 2024.
However, it is generally believed that this rate is due, in part, to a maturing herd profile rather than deliberate and significant destocking measures. Meanwhile, saleyard prices are steady, and despite an expected increase in feeder and lighter stock, prices are projected to remain stable in the coming months.
"A surge in prices is not anticipated, given the lack of restocker activity which often underpins large increases in the Indicator prices," Kemp noted.
Export markets are projected to stay robust. The effect of US tariffs, combined with historically low herd numbers in the US, is now affecting markets beyond its borders. Kemp explained, "Export markets are expected to remain strong into the foreseeable future as the impacts of US tariffs, combined with the country’s multi-decade low herd numbers, are being felt beyond their domestic market. Global market opportunities for Australian beef are expanding due to the ongoing shortfall in US supply."