As the 2025/26 winter crop season approaches, Australian growers will have to navigate through a landscape marked by global geopolitical uncertainty. This uncertainty may greatly influence planting decisions, as reported by ANZ's latest Agri Commodity Report.
According to the Agri InFocus report by ANZ, farmers are expected to keep an eye on global developments affecting crop prices, demand, and input costs. Michael Whitehead, ANZ Executive Director for Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights, stated: “While the 2024/25 season delivered wheat and barley production in line with historical averages, mixed outcomes across states, due to widely varying rainfall, are likely to see soil moisture levels play a role in upcoming planting decisions."
Whitehead also highlighted that, “Looking ahead, global geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts could indirectly influence farmer decision-making for the 2025/26 season. Tariffs and trade tensions remain a key factor, with uncertainty around which grains and oilseeds could be most impacted bringing volatility to price markets.”
The introduction of protectionist policies by various governments could disrupt grain and oilseed trade flows. Consequently, ongoing geopolitical volatility may prompt grain producers to opt for wheat due to its market stability and global demand. This is coupled with the possibility of increased market access for Australian crops, fostering a late surge in planting.
Whitehead added: “It is foreseeable that a number of countries may look to increase their wheat purchases and build up their strategic reserves, in case trade volatility continues for some time.”
The persistent conflict in the Black Sea region is anticipated to continue influencing global wheat and barley markets. This might boost the demand for Australian exports. At the same time, evolving biofuel policies in the European Union could affect Australian canola exports if biodiesel demand changes.
Meanwhile, India remains a key market for Australian growers, with its strong demand for pulse imports. The seasonal challenges facing India's domestic pulse production could sustain demand for Australian lentils and chickpeas.
Currency fluctuations are also likely to play a role, as a relatively low Australian Dollar could enhance the competitiveness of Australian grain and oilseed exports on the global stage. As Whitehead explained, “Input costs, including fertiliser, fuel, and chemical prices, will remain a significant factor in planting decisions. Farmers will need to weigh these costs against potential returns as global markets respond to shifting economic and political conditions.”