Global merchandise trade shows steady growth amid challenges

Trade
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Ambassador Jean-Marie Paugam Senior Management | World Trade Organization

Merchandise trade experienced growth in the third quarter of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3% in current US dollar terms. This marks an improvement from previous quarters, which saw a 1.8% rise in Q2 and a 1.4% decline in Q1.

For the year up to September, trade volume rose by 2.4% compared to the same period in 2023, slightly below the World Trade Organization's (WTO) forecast of 2.7% for 2024 made on October 10. The value of merchandise trade increased by 1.6%, suggesting a small decrease in traded goods prices during this time.

The anticipated 2.7% growth in world merchandise trade volume for 2024 remains achievable if Q4 growth continues at a similar pace as Q3. The WTO Goods Trade Barometer on December 9 indicated ongoing expansion, although global trade tensions pose risks to this outlook.

Regionally, most areas recorded positive quarterly merchandise trade volume growth except Europe. The Commonwealth of Independent States led export growth with a 5.4% rise, followed by North America at 2.1%. Asia and the Middle East reported gains of 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively.

On imports, the CIS region also topped with a 3.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q3, followed by Africa at 2.5%. North America saw a rise of 2.3%, while Asia posted a gain of 2%.

Europe faced negative export and import volume growth, down by -0.2% and -0.3%, respectively, due to manufacturing downturns.

In value terms through September, Asian and Latin American economies showed strong performance with Argentina's exports surging by 17%. Viet Nam's exports rose by 15%, while China's exports increased modestly by 5%.

Viet Nam also led import growth with a significant year-on-year increase of 17%. Other Asian countries such as Malaysia (13%) and Chinese Taipei (9%) experienced notable rises in imports.

Quarterly and monthly statistics are estimates subject to revisions and can be accessed through WTO Stats for more detailed annual data and visualizations.