The World Trade Organization (WTO) has released its October 2024 update on the "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics," highlighting a 2.3% year-on-year increase in global merchandise trade for the first half of 2024. This growth follows a -1.1% decline in 2023, which was influenced by high inflation and rising interest rates. The WTO anticipates moderate expansion in trade through the rest of the year and into 2025, with world real GDP growth expected to remain steady at 2.7% during this period.
Inflation had decreased sufficiently by mid-2024 to enable central banks to lower interest rates, potentially increasing consumer spending and investment by firms. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala expressed cautious optimism about the recovery, stating: “We are expecting a gradual recovery in global trade for 2024, but we remain vigilant of potential setbacks, particularly the potential escalation of regional conflicts like those in the Middle East.”
She emphasized the importance of collective efforts for economic stability: “It is imperative that we continue to work collectively to ensure global economic stability and sustained growth, as these are fundamental to enhancing the welfare of people worldwide."
The report notes that diverging monetary policies among major economies could lead to financial volatility as central banks reduce interest rates. This may complicate debt servicing for poorer economies. However, there is potential for stronger-than-expected growth if interest rate cuts stimulate demand without reigniting inflation.
Regional trade forecasts show modest revisions since April's report. Europe's export volumes are expected to decline by 1.4% in 2024, with imports decreasing by 2.3%. Germany's economy contracted slightly in Q2, affecting manufacturing sectors such as automotive and chemicals.
Asia is projected to experience robust export growth of up to 7.4% in 2024, driven by key manufacturing economies including China and Singapore. South America shows signs of recovery from last year's trade weaknesses, while North American trade remains largely influenced by the United States.
Africa's export growth aligns with global trends but has been revised downward due to weakened European imports—Africa's main trading partner. The Commonwealth of Independent States region is now forecasted for import growth following stronger GDP expansion than anticipated earlier this year.
Trade in services appears more promising than goods, with an 8% increase recorded in Q1 2024 compared to last year’s figures. The services Purchasing Managers' Index indicated continued expansion despite a slight downturn observed in September.
The full report provides detailed quarterly and annual statistics available on the WTO Stats portal along with interactive tools presenting key international trade data.