The World Trade Organization said global trade remains at a stagnant pace in its barometer reading released Tuesday.
“The latest barometer reading is consistent with the WTO's most recent trade forecast from last April, which predicted 3.0% growth in the volume of world merchandise trade in 2022,” according to a news release by the WTO. “However, uncertainty surrounding the forecast has increased due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rising inflationary pressures and expected monetary policy tightening in advanced economies. A revised forecast will to be issued in early October.”
The Goods Trade Barometer is a gauge of world trade, providing real-time information on a quarterly basis regarding the near future trajectory of merchandise trade. The current reading of 100 is the baseline value of the index, which means trade expansion is on-trend.
Global trade has likely been weighed down by the war in Ukraine, but has been raised by the lifting of COVID-19 lockdowns in China. It is expected that the year-on-year trade growth could slow further but remain positive when official second quarter statistics become available. While the volume of world merchandise was 5.7% during the fourth quarter of 2021, growth slowed to 3.2% in the first quarter of this year.
The different components of the goods barometer are mixed with the forward-looking export orders index on trend but are turning downward, with the automotive products index slightly below trend but losing its upward momentum. Air freight and electronic components are below trend and pointing down, with raw materials and container shipping above trend.