The World Trade Organization (WTO) has reported that its Goods Trade Barometer index dropped to 101.8 in September, down from 102.2 in June. This figure remains above the baseline value of 100, indicating that global trade volumes are still above trend but likely to grow at a slower pace in the fourth quarter.
The Goods Trade Barometer serves as a composite leading indicator for world merchandise trade, offering real-time insights into how trade is performing relative to recent trends. Readings above 100 suggest stronger-than-average growth, while values below this threshold point to weaker performance or an impending slowdown.
Most component indices of the barometer remain above their baseline value of 100, with the exception of agricultural raw materials, which stands at 98.0 and has been contracting since early this year. The air freight (102.7) and container shipping (101.7) indices have both declined over the past three months, suggesting a slowdown in goods transportation globally. Indices for automotive products (103.0) and electronic components (102.0) held steady during this period.
The new export orders index reached 102.3 in the second quarter after earlier fluctuations, indicating ongoing momentum in global exports despite some volatility.
According to WTO data, merchandise trade grew by 4.9% year-on-year during the first half of 2025—exceeding expectations—but factors such as higher tariffs and persistent uncertainty around trade policy are expected to slow growth for the remainder of the year. The WTO’s latest forecast from October projects global trade volume growth at about 2.4% for all of 2025; however, there could be more upside if demand for AI-related products continues to rise.
The next update on WTO’s trade forecast is scheduled for April 2026.