An analysis released this month from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) said that disruptions involving global potash and phosphate supplies are emerging as a major driver of fertilizer price volatility. The report, authored by CEPA analysts Elly Rostoum and Jenna Presta, said that the United States is increasingly exposed to geopolitical pressure points that influence the availability and cost of the minerals essential to fertilizer production.
Potash and phosphate are two of the core mineral components used to produce modern fertilizers. Potash supplies potassium, which supports root strength, water regulation, and overall plant health. Phosphate delivers phosphorus necessary for energy transfer, early growth, and crop maturity. Because they form key elements of N-P-K fertilizers, disruptions to either mineral can directly influence global crop yields and production costs.
“Russia and Belarus continue to shape global potash flows, despite sanctions and export-burden risk. For a country that prides itself on agricultural abundance, the US is discovering that abundance does not always equate to resilience,” the CEPA article states. “When China clamps down on exports, as it has in recent years to shield its own farmers, global prices jolt upward, and import-dependent nations feel the squeeze almost overnight.”
The authors said that potash and phosphate were added to the U.S. Geological Survey’s 2025 list of critical minerals due to high supply-chain concentration and the potential for significant economic disruption if access is limited.
Production of these minerals remains concentrated among a small group of countries, wrote Rostoum and Presta. Russia and Belarus together control a large share of global potash exports, while China produces nearly half of the world’s phosphates and holds substantial influence over downstream fertilizer products. Export restrictions, sanctions, and domestic political decisions in these regions can quickly trigger price spikes for farmers worldwide.
The report also identifies China as a recurring driver of market volatility. When Beijing restricts phosphate exports to stabilize domestic markets, international supplies tighten immediately, raising costs for fertilizer-dependent nations. These disruptions were seen after China imposed export limits in 2021 and during subsequent periods of domestic price pressure.
Improving long-term resilience will require diversification of supply, domestic investment in mining and processing, and policy frameworks that treat fertilizer inputs as strategically important, the authors wrote. Without structural changes, the authors warn, geopolitical disruptions will continue to influence global fertilizer prices.
The impact of geopolitical disruptions on U.S. fertilizer prices also was cited earlier this month by Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI).
“The factors that are driving this market are, frankly, outside of our control and honestly, outside of this country’s control,” Rosenbusch said on the AgriTalk radio program. “Geopolitics this time is taking the headlines when it comes to driving supply demand factors.”
CEPA is a Washington, D.C.–based think tank focused on transatlantic security, democratic resilience, and strategic policy research. The organization publishes analysis on geopolitical developments affecting the United States and Europe, including critical minerals, energy security, and supply-chain vulnerabilities.