Thailand could see its economy shrink by up to 14 percent by 2050 due to climate-related risks such as floods, heat stress, water shortages, and coastal erosion if it does not implement new adaptation measures, according to a new World Bank report. The Country Climate and Development Report outlines how timely investments in adaptation, emissions reduction, and green export opportunities can help Thailand achieve its goal of becoming an inclusive and sustainable high-income country.
The report highlights that while the country is already recognized for its eco-friendly air-conditioner exports and growing electric vehicle production sector, green products currently account for less than 10 percent of total exports. By reducing market-entry barriers, lowering tariffs and subsidies that distort markets, improving workforce skills, and encouraging domestic innovation, Thailand could increase green exports by 2–3 percent of GDP by 2030.
Melinda Good, World Bank Division Director for Thailand and Myanmar, stated: “Thailand’s future competitiveness will hinge on reducing the emission intensity of its economy and shifting production toward greener goods and services—steps that can create new industries, generate high-quality jobs, and keep Thailand attractive to investors in a low-carbon world.” She added: “Through our Building Thailand’s Future Today flagship initiative in the lead up to the IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings 2026 in Bangkok, we are working with government and partners to advance this agenda.”
The Chao Phraya basin—which supports 40 percent of the population and contributes two-thirds of GDP—is particularly at risk from flooding. Water shortages are expected to worsen in agricultural areas and industrial zones like the Eastern Economic Corridor. Coastal erosion has already impacted about 30 percent of Thailand’s coastline and could cost tourism $1 billion annually by the mid-2040s. Heat stress threatens productivity across major sectors.
Kim Alan Edwards, World Bank Senior Economist and lead author of the report said: “Investments in flood mitigation, water security, coastal protection, climate-smart agriculture, and cooling could raise annual GDP by 2-3 percent by 2040 and by 4-5 percent by 2050 compared with a business-as-usual scenario, while protecting people and reducing the risks of extreme events.” He also emphasized: “Scaling up social protection will be critical to boost the resilience of the most vulnerable to climate shocks and to better address their needs in the aftermath of disasters”.
The report estimates that meeting adaptation goals along with emissions reduction will require $219 billion over the next quarter-century—about 2.4 percent of cumulative GDP. The World Bank suggests these financial needs can be met through carbon pricing mechanisms combined with public revenue reforms and increased private capital investment.
Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are tools introduced by The World Bank Group to help countries align climate action with development priorities. These reports provide data-driven research on adaptation strategies as well as greenhouse gas reduction pathways aimed at supporting governments’ efforts toward resilient growth.