Without increased action, climate change could reduce Uganda's economic growth by up to 3.1% by 2050, according to a new report released by the World Bank Group. The Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), launched in Kampala, also warns that more than 613,000 people could fall into poverty and an additional 12 million may become internal migrants if current trends continue.
The report details risks such as reduced labor productivity—projected to drop by as much as 2.4% due to heat stress—and threats to key infrastructure. Twenty-one percent of the electricity network is at risk, and annual road damages could reach $26 million.
The CCDR proposes a shift toward climate-resilient and low-carbon development, with actions spanning agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and urban planning. The recommendations focus on building resilience among young people and low-income groups.
"Uganda faces a critical moment as the 14th most climate-vulnerable country," said Qimiao Fan, World Bank Division Director for Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, and Uganda. "Climate action is not only essential but offers an opportunity to redefine the country's development trajectory. The CCDR provides a roadmap for integrating climate consideration into national policies and investments, ensuring that growth is sustainable, inclusive, and climate resilient.”
Four intervention packages are outlined in the report: supporting jobs for youth and services for vulnerable populations; advancing sustainable agriculture; investing in climate-smart infrastructure; and planning for urbanization that takes climate projections into account.
“Private investment in climate-smart agriculture, solar irrigation, renewable energy, e-mobility, and green building can enhance food security, energy access, and livable cities—while creating jobs and driving economic growth,” said Mary Porter Peschka, International Finance Corporation (IFC) Division Director for Eastern Africa. “By fostering private engagement in climate-resilient projects, Uganda can build a greener and more prosperous future."
Additional measures include implementing Uganda’s National Climate Finance Strategy; integrating climate issues into procurement processes; strengthening disaster risk management; adapting trade policies for low-carbon markets; improving real-time data collection; and increasing private sector involvement through carbon markets and green finance.
Country Climate and Development Reports are part of the World Bank Group’s strategy to integrate climate concerns with development planning. These reports aim to help countries prioritize adaptation efforts while aligning with wider development goals by providing research-based guidance on resilience and emissions reduction.