A recent surge in United States imports ahead of expected tariff increases has led to a more positive outlook for global trade growth in 2025, according to an updated forecast. The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported that the first quarter saw significant frontloading of imports, which raised the annual projection compared to earlier estimates from April. However, new tariffs that took effect this week are expected to reduce trade volumes in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026.
Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala commented on these developments: "Global trade has shown resilience in the face of persistent shocks, including recent tariff hikes. Frontloaded imports and improved macroeconomic conditions have provided a modest lift to the 2025 outlook. However, the full impact of recent tariff measures is still unfolding. The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment and supply chains. Uncertainty remains one of the most disruptive forces in the global trading environment."
She added: "Nevertheless, it is important that a broader cycle of tit-for-tat retaliation that could be very damaging to global trade has so far been avoided. The WTO Secretariat will continue to monitor developments closely, including further work on the impact of the latest tariff measures on the share of global trade conducted under Most Favoured Nation (MFN) principles. Work will also continue with members to safeguard the stability and predictability so essential to the world’s trading system."
The report highlights regional differences in trade performance expectations for 2025 and 2026. Asian economies are set to remain key drivers for merchandise trade volume growth next year, though their influence is expected to diminish somewhat by 2026. North America’s role will continue to negatively affect overall trade growth but less so than previously predicted due to stronger-than-expected import activity early this year. Europe’s contribution shifted from slightly positive forecasts earlier in 2025 to now being marginally negative.
Regions dependent on energy exports are anticipated to see reduced contributions as lower oil prices shrink export revenues and dampen demand for imports.
Current projections indicate North America's imports may decline by 8.3% in 2025—an improvement over April's forecasted drop of 9.6%. Asia's exports have been revised upward with a projected increase of 4.9%, compared with just 1.6% estimated earlier this year.
Earlier forecasts had predicted a -0.2% contraction in world merchandise trade for 2025 based on then-existing policies and US suspensions of certain tariffs as of mid-April; subsequent agreements between the US, China, and UK briefly improved prospects before renewed steel and aluminum tariffs tempered those gains again.
The higher tariffs introduced August 7 are likely to exert greater downward pressure as time goes on but may be offset temporarily by continued frontloading behavior and inventory build-ups among importers—a trend that could reverse later as excess inventories are drawn down.
The updated WTO forecast identifies three main factors influencing its outlook:
- A sharp rise in US imports during early 2025 was primarily attributed to businesses moving purchases forward ahead of anticipated tariffs—a pattern mirrored at lower levels elsewhere.
- An unexpectedly favorable global economic environment—including depreciation of the US dollar against other currencies—has eased financial conditions for developing nations while falling oil prices support manufacturing-led economies.
- Despite these positives, recent changes in tariff policy remain a drag on future prospects: while some agreements (such as truce measures between Washington and Beijing or motor vehicle exemptions) help cushion impacts, new reciprocal tariffs implemented this month are expected eventually both to suppress American import demand and depress export opportunities for partner countries.