The first quarter of 2025 saw significant growth in merchandise trade, driven by anticipated tariff hikes announced by the United States on April 2. Importers moved purchases forward to avoid higher duties, resulting in trade volume growth that exceeded projections from the World Trade Organization's (WTO) Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report issued on April 16.
As of mid-June, merchandise trade growth for the year was expected to be flat at 0.1%, despite adjustments due to various trade agreements and measures. The US dollar value of world merchandise trade increased by 4% year-on-year in the first quarter, reflecting strong volume growth and declining prices.
Regional disparities were notable in import volumes during this period. North America experienced a significant increase of 13.4%, while Africa saw a rise of 5.1%. South and Central America and the Caribbean recorded an increase of 3.6%, followed by the Middle East at 3.0%, Europe at 1.3%, and Asia at 1.1%. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was the only region with a decline, registering -0.5%.
On the export side, the Middle East led with a growth rate of 6.3%, followed by Asia at 5.6%. Other regions such as South America, Africa, Europe, and North America also showed positive export growths.
In terms of product categories, office and telecom equipment saw a robust performance with a year-on-year increase of 16%. Chemicals rose by 12% and clothing by 7%. However, automotive products decreased by -4% alongside fuels and mining products which also fell.
Africa recorded strong merchandise export growth in value terms at an increase of 9% year-on-year for Q1, mainly driven by gold, ores, cocoa, and copper exports.
On imports' side North America had a notable increase of +19% compared to last year along with South America's +12%.
Monthly statistics indicate that import demand began slowing after Q1’s surge; for instance US imports rose just slightly between April-May compared to Q1 but remained up overall for Jan-May period (+15%).
These findings are available through WTO's online database stats.wto.org