The Goods Trade Barometer, a key indicator for global trade, has shown an increase in imports during the first quarter of 2025, preceding anticipated tariff hikes. This barometer provides insights into merchandise trade trends, with values above 100 indicating higher-than-average trade volumes and values below 100 suggesting potential declines.
Currently, the barometer reads at 103.5, surpassing both its baseline value of 100 and the quarterly trade volume index. Despite this positive figure, a decrease in export orders and temporary import increases suggest that trade growth may decelerate as companies reduce imports and rely on existing inventories.
The new export orders index, considered the most predictive component of the barometer, has fallen to 97.9, indicating weaker trade growth prospects later in the year. Conversely, other components such as air freight (104.3), container shipping (107.1), automotive products (105.3), and electronic components (102.0) have all risen above trend levels. The raw materials index shows modest growth at 100.8.
Trade volume growth had slowed in late 2024 but is expected to rebound in early 2025 based on current data from the goods barometer and preliminary figures. According to the WTO Secretariat's Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report from April 16, 2025, stable trade growth of 2.7% was projected under a low-tariff scenario at the start of the year. However, actual policies could lead to a slight contraction of -0.2%. Developments such as US-China and US-UK agreements and increased tariffs on steel and aluminum have adjusted forecasts slightly but left overall expectations flat at around 0.1%.
There remains a possibility for trade contraction if US reciprocal tariffs are reinstated or if global trade policy uncertainty rises.
Further information about the Goods Trade Barometer can be accessed online.