The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation and second review discussions under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) with Tajikistan. The mission, led by Matthew Gaertner, visited Dushanbe from April 2 to April 15, 2025, and focused on economic developments, monetary policies, fiscal policies, and structural reforms.
The IMF reported, "Strong broad-based growth continued in 2024, and the external position remained favorable." Tajikistan's real GDP surged by 8.4 percent in 2024, maintaining a four-year trend of growth exceeding 8 percent. The growth was supported by sustained momentum in mining, manufacturing, and agriculture, in addition to public and private investments. These factors contributed to a current account surplus of 6.2 percent of GDP in 2024.
Inflation has been stable, with a rate of 3.7 percent in February 2025, which is within the National Bank of Tajikistan's (NBT) target range. According to the IMF, "Reserve money growth has moderated since mid-2024 as the NBT stepped up its sterilization efforts."
The financial sector saw significant growth, with a 29 percent year-on-year increase in private sector credit as of February 2025. This is attributed to increased household loans and new retail lending products. The IMF highlighted the importance of continuing structural reforms to sustain potential growth.
On fiscal matters, Tajikistan achieved a fiscal surplus of 0.3 percent of GDP in 2024. Despite a reduction in the VAT rate, stable revenue growth contributed to this outcome. The country's public debt ratio improved, falling to 25 percent of GDP by the end of 2024. Prudent fiscal policies are deemed essential to maintain debt sustainability.
The IMF recommended further actions to enhance fiscal performance, noting that "Improved revenue mobilization and spending efficiency are key to increasing fiscal space for priority social and development projects." Measures such as expanding digital payment processes and discontinuing tax exemptions for large investment projects have been initiated.
The IMF also emphasized the need for improving financial performance in the electricity sector and suggested measures to reduce quasi-fiscal losses by enhancing collection rates and implementing smart metering.
In terms of monetary policy, the NBT has lowered its inflation target to 5 percent for 2025. "The policy rate was lowered by 25 basis points to 8.75 percent in February 2025," following a period of stable inflation. The IMF pointed out that "Enhancing exchange rate flexibility is essential to build resilience to external shocks."
The IMF mission acknowledged ongoing efforts for structural reforms in governance and transparency. Such reforms aim to improve public sector efficiency, foster development, and promote a favorable investment climate.
Macroprudential oversight and banking supervision remain critical to managing external financial risks, with banking system strength cited as a key focus area.
The mission expressed gratitude to the Tajik authorities for their hospitality and cooperation and noted that discussions to finalize the second PCI review would continue.