An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Mariana Colacelli, conducted an Article IV Consultation in Mauritius from March 31 to April 11, 2025. Following the visit, Colacelli provided an update on the economic status and outlook of the country.
In 2024, Mauritius experienced a significant rise in real GDP, growing by 4.7 percent, mainly due to the services, construction, and tourism sectors. However, Colacelli indicated that the growth rate might decrease to 3.0 percent in 2025, citing factors like weakening external demand, reduced tourism activity, and a severe drought.
Colacelli reported, "Headline inflation is projected to remain contained in 2025. Inflation eased in 2024 to 3.6 percent from 7.0 percent in 2023. Inflation was 2.5 percent in March, remaining within the Bank of Mauritius’ (BOM) target range of 2-5 percent, driven by declining international food and energy prices, and lower fuel excise duties."
The 2024 external current account deficit widened, but foreign reserves increased to $8.4 billion by the end of the year. Colacelli noted the risks of a slowdown in global growth and rising uncertainty in trade and financial markets. Possible delays in adjusting macroeconomic policies and extreme climate events could also affect economic growth.
She also highlighted, "Policy discussions centered on recalibrating the macroeconomic policy mix to rebuild fiscal space, strengthening the monetary policy framework, and maintaining financial stability."
The fiscal policy stance for the fiscal year 2024/25 is anticipated to be expansionary, with a primary fiscal deficit projected to widen. Public debt is expected to nearly reach 90 percent of GDP by the end of June 2025. A fiscal consolidation plan targeting sustainable growth and increased fiscal governance is due to start in 2025/26.
The monetary policy environment has become less accommodating since 2023, with inflation easing within target ranges. Colacelli emphasized the importance of maintaining BOM’s independence and strengthening the monetary policy framework while conserving foreign reserves.
Financial stability is pledged by monitoring macro-financial risks linked to global business companies and the real estate sector. Structural reforms are aimed at improving governance, strengthening AML/CFT standards, and boosting private sector competitiveness while enhancing climate resilience.
Colacelli concluded, "The IMF team extends its thanks to the Mauritian authorities and people for the constructive and open dialogue and warm hospitality."