The electricity-to-gas price ratio significantly influences the adoption of heat pumps in Germany, according to a recent analysis by KfW Research. The study highlights that reducing electricity prices or increasing gas prices could potentially double the sales of heat pumps in the country.
Dr. Johannes Rode, an energy expert at KfW Research, stated, "The electricity-to-gas price ratio is a relevant lever in driving heat pump adoption." He emphasized the importance of implementing measures such as a reliable and rising carbon price to increase gas costs and offering attractive electricity rates for heat pumps. Dr. Rode also noted the necessity of supporting low-income households with grants or low-interest loans to ensure a fair energy transition.
The study found that Germany lags behind other European countries in adopting this heating technology. In 2023, Germany sold approximately 11 heat pumps per 1,000 households, compared to higher numbers in countries like Switzerland (17), France (23), Sweden (36), and Norway (57). Among 21 countries studied, Germany ranked 17th.
Scandinavian countries lead not only in new installations but also in existing ones. In Norway and Finland, half of all residential buildings already have a heat pump, while only five percent of German homes are equipped with one.
Despite these figures, there is noticeable progress in new German buildings where heat pumps have become the primary heating technology. In 2023, they were installed in 72 percent of approved detached houses and 52 percent of multi-family residential buildings.
Overall, the sale of heat pumps across Europe has quadrupled over the past decade despite a slight decline in 2023. The trend reflects a broader shift within the heating market; while only one in ten heating systems sold was a heat pump in 2019, this figure rose to one in four over the past two years.