Howden Re Brazil, in partnership with MeteoIA, has published the sixth edition of its Brazil and Global Climate Impacts report. The report covers climate conditions in Brazil from June to August 2025 and outlines a period marked by both intense rainfall in the South and worsening drought in parts of the Northeast. It also documents several cold waves and hailstorms that affected agriculture and energy sectors.
Antônio Jorge da Mota Rodrigues, Head of Howden Re Brazil, stated: “As Brazil prepares to host COP30, this report reinforces the urgency of transforming data into action. The climate system is no longer defined by linear patterns but by overlapping extremes. At Howden Re, we are committed to using analytics to help shape solutions that anticipate risk, support sustainable finance, and strengthen resilience across all sectors of society.”
The report notes that June saw above-average rainfall in some areas due to frontal systems and cyclones, leading rivers in Rio Grande do Sul to exceed flood thresholds. In July, there was less rain than usual in much of the Centre-South while northern regions experienced wetter conditions influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone. That month also brought sea storms and hail across Minas Gerais, damaging coffee plantations.
In August, rainfall returned closer to normal levels for most regions. However, a strong cold front brought significant rain to southern states while polar air masses caused frost across highland areas such as Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul—affecting winter crops and coffee production. According to Civil Defence data cited in the report, over 12,000 people were left homeless between June and mid-August due to floods and storms; 52,000 were displaced and 547 injured.
The national drought monitor for mid-2025 showed mixed results: heavy rains improved water reserves in the South and Central-West after May’s precipitation events but drought intensified elsewhere. Extreme drought was recorded in Bahia and Piauí; severe drought expanded through São Paulo and Santa Catarina. By August 2025 southern reservoirs had risen sharply from 33.5% capacity in May up to nearly 90%, while storage dropped or stagnated elsewhere—59% for the Northeast subsystem; about 57% for Southeast/Central-West—highlighting ongoing pressure on hydropower resources.
Looking ahead from September through November 2025, MeteoIA’s model predicts neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions with a chance of weak La Niña development later on. Other factors such as positive Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) phases and North Atlantic warming are expected to influence weather patterns further.
Forecasts suggest below-average rainfall is likely for Centre-Western states including Paraná early on; October may bring more rain for Rio Grande do Sul as well as São Paulo before drier conditions return later in spring. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly higher than average throughout most regions—particularly toward season’s end—which could increase heat stress on crops.
Despite these challenges from extreme weather events during the quarter under review, Brazilian agriculture achieved record yields: corn output rose by 14% year-on-year reaching almost 132 million tonnes; safrinha (second crop) hit an all-time high exceeding 109 million tonnes overall—with Mato Grosso do Sul setting its own record despite losses from wind damage or frost exposure. Risk mapping tools identified high-risk zones accurately ahead of time based on temperature extremes combined with strong winds.
For the upcoming soya season (2025–26), favorable growing conditions are anticipated mainly for Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Mato Grosso do Sul; however Minas Gerais along with northern Maranhão may face greater risks due to erratic rainfall patterns coupled with elevated temperatures.