The ongoing situation in Ukraine and the challenges faced by the Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) in gathering comprehensive data were discussed recently. A representative addressed concerns about the difficulty of conducting statistical analysis due to varying levels of access on either side of the line of contact.
"It’s difficult to do a statistical analysis because on one side of the line of contact the SMM has almost complete access, and on the other side... there are huge areas that are a black box," they explained. The SMM is tasked with reporting only what it can verify, leading to an incomplete picture, particularly in separatist-controlled areas.
This limited access is exacerbated when patrols are delayed or escorted, allowing time for potential violations to be concealed. "Holding up a patrol at a checkpoint for 15 minutes gives enough time to move heavy weapons off a road and into a barn," they noted.
There is skepticism regarding statistics presented by Russian officials, such as those from Foreign Minister Lavrov. "We have to take with a grain of salt... any statistics, and ask the second order question: What kind of access does the SMM have in that area?" they said.
The disparity in access between Ukrainian government-controlled territory and separatist-held regions is evident. Maps provided by the SMM highlight these restrictions, resulting in different data sets from each side.
Despite limited capacity on Russian and separatist-controlled territories, numerous violations have been observed. "What is striking is... that it sees so many violations," they remarked. There is speculation that more severe violations may be hidden where access is denied.
"If the Russians cared about implementing the Minsk agreements they would order their forces to withdraw their weapons," they concluded, urging full access for verification purposes.