Barclays Research has released a new report in its Impact Series, titled "AI revolution: Meeting massive AI infrastructure demands." The report focuses on the United States, the current market leader in artificial intelligence technology. It projects that AI growth could cause data-centre usage to triple by 2030.
The report suggests that these estimates for data-centre usage significantly exceed current consensus figures. It also examines the implications of such rapid AI expansion on global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. According to Barclays, while power conservation through efficiencies can help, it may not fully offset the increased energy demand driven by AI proliferation.
Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research at Barclays, stated, "The balancing act between achieving emissions targets while allowing responsible AI technology to advance is a global challenge." He emphasized the need for collaboration among policymakers, tech companies, and the energy industry to ensure that AI development is both socially beneficial and environmentally sustainable.
The report analyzes projected growth in consumption due to AI and addresses urgent questions regarding the substantial infrastructure demands posed by this technology. It highlights how public and private sectors might work together to promote responsible and sustainable AI deployment.
Key findings from Barclays' Impact Series include:
- Current Energy Use: Data centres consume between 1.0% and 1.5% of global electricity (excluding cryptocurrencies), according to mid-2024 data from IEA.
- Future Energy Demand in the US: By 2030, US data-centre use could rise from 150-175 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2023 to 560 TWh—equivalent to 13% of current US electricity demand.
- Implications for Net-Zero Targets: The increase in electricity demand driven by AI and data centres may be more significant than initially anticipated when setting net-zero targets.
Barclays' Impact Series employs data-driven analysis to explore economic, demographic, and disruptive changes affecting markets and society globally.
For further information about Barclays or access to their reports, visit their website at home.barclays.