Tanzania's ambition to become a middle-income country by 2050 faces significant challenges due to climate change, as outlined in the recent Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) by the World Bank Group. The report warns that if climate change remains unaddressed, it could reduce economic growth by up to 4% by 2050, push an additional 2.6 million people into poverty, and cause up to 13 million citizens to migrate internally.
Despite its strategic location and natural resources contributing to social and economic progress since 2000, Tanzania continues to face issues such as dependence on rainfed agriculture, rapid population growth, and limited infrastructure. These factors increase vulnerability to climate risks.
"The private sector can play a pivotal role in driving sustainable development and addressing climate challenges," stated Mary Porter Peschka, IFC's Regional Director for Eastern Africa. She emphasized that public funding alone is insufficient for tackling these challenges.
In terms of vulnerability to climate change, Tanzania ranked 47th globally in 2022 and was placed at 150th out of 191 countries regarding readiness to cope with it. Projections indicate an average temperature rise of 1.23°C across the nation by 2050.
Flooding poses a significant threat, particularly in low-lying urban areas. About 463 square kilometers of urban land are at high risk due to encroachment on riverbanks and wetlands combined with inadequate drainage systems.
While Tanzania contributes just 0.31% of global greenhouse gas emissions as of 2019, emissions from forests alone range significantly each year. Other major contributors include agriculture and transport sectors.
“Climate change disproportionately impacts those least able to cope,” noted Diji Chandrasekharan Behr, World Bank Lead Environmental Economist and co-author of the report. He pointed out that regions with higher poverty levels are more exposed to climate-related shocks.
The CCDR proposes several strategies for integrating climate considerations into Tanzania’s development plans through Vision 2050:
1. Strengthen social protection systems and create jobs resilient to climate shocks.
2. Optimize land use with smart technology for increased agricultural productivity.
3. Develop resilient infrastructure across transport, digital, and energy sectors.
4. Establish robust governance frameworks for effective climate action.
5. Mobilize diverse financing mechanisms for climate-compatible development.