The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a concluding statement following its 2024 Article IV mission to the Czech Republic. The report outlines the current state of the Czech economy, its outlook, and associated risks.
According to the IMF staff, "the Czech economy is slowly regaining ground after an unprecedented combination of shocks." The transition from a manufacturing-based, export-oriented growth model to a more diversified economy is underway. A balanced policy approach has contributed to stabilizing prices while maintaining fiscal and financial buffers.
Inflation in the country has moderated but remains influenced by volatile food prices. "Headline inflation has reached the Czech National Bank’s (CNB) 2 percent target," although it has recently increased due to these price fluctuations. Growth projections for 2025 indicate an acceleration to 2.4 percent from this year's estimated 1 percent.
The IMF notes that "risks to growth are on the downside while risks to inflation appear balanced." Factors such as geoeconomic fragmentation and recovery among European trading partners could impact growth negatively, while wage growth and commodity prices might influence inflation upwards.
Monetary policy recommendations include further easing towards a neutral rate by mid-2025. The IMF advises that any adjustments should be gradual and data-dependent, taking into account core inflation trends and potential deviations from targets.
On fiscal policy, maintaining a broadly neutral stance is deemed appropriate for 2025 despite potential budget risks. "Additional measures will be required over the medium term" to keep deficits at prudent levels while supporting economic transformation efforts.
Financial stability concerns focus on residential property prices and bank exposures. The IMF recommends close monitoring of these areas alongside careful evaluation of systemic risk buffers.
Finally, structural policies should support economic transformation by reducing administrative burdens and facilitating labor allocation towards higher value-added sectors. The IMF highlights that decisive action is needed in sectors like non-auto manufacturing and ICT services for sustainable growth.
"The mission would like to thank the Czech authorities for their warm hospitality, open collaboration, and fruitful discussions."