Admiral Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations, believes a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could start as early as this year – much sooner than five years later, which some officials predicted.
"When we talk about the 2027 window, in my mind that has to be a 2022 window or a potentially a 2023 window," Gilday said in a video posted by the Atlantic Council. "I can’t rule that out."
Admiral Philip Davidson, who was commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, met with the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services in 2021. He discussed at the hearing China's efforts to militarily outpace the U.S. and when China is most likely to invade Taiwan.
"I worry that they are accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order, which they have long said that they want to do that by 2050," Davidson said during the hearing. "I am worried about them moving that target closer. Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before then, and I think the threat is manifest during this decade – in fact, in the next six years."
Gilday spoke in the video about his reason for believing China could invade Taiwan in 2022 or 2023, as opposed to the so-called Davidson window of 2027.
"It's not just what President Xi [Jinping] says, but it's how the Chinese behave and what they do," Gilday said. "And what we've seen over the past 20 years is that they have delivered on every promise they've made earlier than they said they were going to deliver on it."
Reuters reported in mid-October on an opening speech given before the Chinese Communist Party's 20th Congress. Xi stated that China opposes Taiwan's independence and will persist in pursuing peaceful reunification with Taiwan. He said China will keep the option of using force and other measures to take back Taiwan.
Gilday, a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, is a surface warfare officer in charge of shipboard operations at sea. He earned a master's degree from Harvard Kennedy School and is currently chief of naval operations – a position he has held since August 2019, according to defense.gov. His duties include providing senior naval leadership with information and resources needed to make intelligent and informed decisions for the U.S. Navy, ussjpkennedy.org noted.