An International Monetary Fund working paper projected that metal prices would surge in a sustained period.
The IMF recently released a study detailing how the push for clean energy could significantly raise prices for core metals, such as copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium, for years to come. The paper revealed that the extremely high increase in demand due to the climate policies being adopted by nations around the world can cause the swelling of prices.
The IMF article stated that the demand for these metals may be historic: “Prices could reach historical peaks for an unprecedented length of time – and even delay the energy transition itself.”
It also specifically estimated that one metric ton of lithium, which currently costs around $6,000, could jump to $15,000 by the end of the decade and remain at those higher prices through most of the 2030s.
The Metal Price Scenarios graphic shows historical data leading into estimated price increases under the net-zero emissions scenario intended to take effect by 2040. The greyed-out areas are the uncertainty bands, which show how much above or below the estimated prices could be.
It furthermore estimated that the metal boom could bring substantial economic gain to companies that are involved in exporting these key metals. The IMF also hinted at some global “mandates” surrounding these key metals to “play a key role in data dissemination and analysis, setting industry standards, and fostering global cooperation.”
