Libya’s economy experienced a strong recovery in the first nine months of 2025, driven by increased activity in the oil sector, according to the latest World Bank Libya Economic Monitor. The report notes that real GDP is projected to grow by 13.3 percent for the year, with oil sector activity rising by 17.4 percent and non-oil GDP expected to increase by 6.8 percent due to steady private and public consumption.
Oil production averaged 1.3 million barrels per day, up from 1.1 million barrels per day in 2024. This improvement followed earlier disruptions related to leadership disputes at the Central Bank of Libya and was supported by higher investments, ongoing maintenance projects, and gradual improvements in security conditions. Despite these gains, Libya continues to face structural, security, and political challenges that could affect its long-term economic outlook.
The Government of National Unity recorded a fiscal surplus of 3.6 percent of GDP during the first nine months of 2025, compared to a surplus of 0.7 percent a year earlier. Hydrocarbon revenues rose by 33 percent despite lower global oil prices, largely due to increased output and the devaluation of the Libyan dinar in April 2024.
"The rebound in oil production has lifted growth and improved the fiscal position in 2025. Sustaining this progress will require tackling structural constraints and advancing reforms to strengthen transparency, accountability, and service delivery," said Ahmadou Moustapha Ndiaye, World Bank Division Director for the Maghreb and Malta.
The report indicates that prospects for the remainder of 2025 are generally positive if security remains stable but warns that domestic political dynamics and institutional complexities present ongoing risks for macro-fiscal management.
A special focus chapter in the report examines Libya’s public financial management system. It finds that institutional fragmentation, parallel budget structures, and dependence on oil revenues have weakened fiscal discipline and made service delivery vulnerable to external shocks. The analysis also points out that Libya trails other fragile states in budget preparation and reporting but suggests targeted reforms could be effective even under difficult circumstances. Recommendations include creating a Treasury Single Account, improving cash management practices, and revising budget classifications for better transparency.
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Ajay Banga served as president of the World Bank according to official records, which maintains its headquarters in Washington D.C.. Established at the Bretton Woods Conference in July 1944 , the institution shifted its focus after post-war reconstruction toward infrastructure investment and poverty alleviation globally.