Myanmar’s economy is showing moderate signs of recovery, according to the latest World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor. The country continues to face challenges from the aftermath of the March 2025 earthquake, ongoing conflict, and structural issues such as weak domestic demand, labor shortages, and frequent power outages.
The report notes that business activity improved in October 2025 compared to earlier in the year. The national currency, the kyat, has strengthened throughout 2025 after a sharp fall last year. Although inflation pressures have eased somewhat, prices remain high and continue to affect household budgets. There has also been an increase in freight transport volumes over the six months leading up to September 2025, indicating some relief from supply disruptions caused by the earthquake.
“These early signs of recovery are encouraging,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Division Director for Thailand and Myanmar. “However, Myanmar’s economy continues to face formidable obstacles, including constrained reconstruction financing, ongoing conflict and insecurity, and unreliable electricity supply.”
The World Bank projects that real GDP will contract by 2 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2026. This is a slight improvement from its previous estimate of a 2.5 percent contraction. A modest rebound of 3 percent is forecast for FY2026/27 as post-earthquake reconstruction efforts continue and targeted assistance reaches those most affected. Inflation is expected to stay above 20 percent in the near term while fiscal pressures remain; government deficit is projected at 5 percent of GDP for FY2026/27 due to increased spending on reconstruction efforts. Public debt levels are expected to stay above 60 percent of GDP because of higher domestic borrowing.
The agrifood sector remains a key part of Myanmar’s private sector activity and job creation despite regular shocks such as flooding and earthquakes. It accounts for about one-quarter of gross value-added and more than one-fifth of employment within manufacturing.
"Strengthening agrifood value chains is important for resilience and jobs,” says Kemoh Mansaray, World Bank Senior Economist. “International experience suggests that improving the enabling environment and investing in agricultural infrastructure can help.”
The report recommends measures such as strengthening links between producers and processors, upgrading storage facilities and logistics infrastructure, and improving access to modern processing technologies within the agrifood sector.