Tunisia's economy is beginning to recover, according to the World Bank’s latest economic update titled “Strengthening Social Safety Nets for Increased Efficiency and Equity.” The report notes that real GDP grew by 2.4 percent in the first nine months of 2025, after several years of slow growth following the COVID-19 pandemic.
The World Bank projects that growth will reach 2.6 percent in 2025 and stabilize at around 2.4 percent between 2026 and 2027. This outlook is supported by stronger agricultural output, a revival in construction, and improvements in tourism. However, the report points out ongoing challenges such as limited access to external financing, low productivity growth, and weak investment levels.
Inflation has been declining for seven consecutive months, dropping to 4.9 percent in October from a high of 10.4 percent in February 2023. This decrease is attributed to lower global prices for energy and cereals, with food inflation also falling to 5.6 percent. The current account deficit widened to two percent of GDP during the first half of the year due to increased imports and stagnant exports, but strong tourism revenues and remittances have helped ease external pressures.
Foreign direct investment increased by 41 percent over the first seven months of the year, largely driven by renewable energy projects. Despite limited access to international markets, this investment has contributed to external stability. On fiscal matters, Tunisia’s budget deficit narrowed to 6.3 percent of GDP in 2024 while public debt stands at about 84.5 percent of GDP.
A special chapter in the report reviews Tunisia’s social protection system with an emphasis on social assistance programs. The AMEN cash transfer program has played a significant role in reducing poverty and inequality; its coverage has tripled over the past decade to reach about ten percent of Tunisians. The report recommends further improving targeting mechanisms, promoting regional equity, expanding digital tools for delivery, increasing economic inclusion efforts, and gradually extending insurance coverage to informal workers.
“Tunisia has made important progress in its coverage for the poorest,” said Alexandre Arrobbio, World Bank Country Manager for Tunisia. “In line with our focus on human capital and resilience in our partnership with Tunisia, improving the efficiency and equity of social safety nets could reduce inequalities and boost economic inclusion for vulnerable households.”
The World Bank concludes that maintaining macroeconomic stability and strengthening fiscal sustainability are crucial for ensuring shared prosperity across Tunisia’s population. Additionally, reforms aimed at enhancing public enterprise performance as well as improving competition and investment conditions remain important priorities.