A recent study from the University of Oxford, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, has examined how a global shift towards plant-based diets could impact agricultural employment and labour costs. The research was led by Dr Marco Springmann, senior researcher at the Environmental Change Institute (ECI), with contributions from Professor Michael Obersteiner, director of the ECI; Dr Yiorgos Vittis, an agricultural and food economist; and Professor Sir Charles Godfray, director of the Oxford Martin School.
The researchers analyzed dietary patterns such as flexitarian, pescatarian, vegetarian, and vegan diets to determine their effects on food production jobs across 179 countries. By integrating data on crop and livestock labour needs with global food production models, they estimated potential changes in the agricultural workforce.
They found that moving towards more plant-based diets could decrease worldwide agricultural labour requirements by 5–28 percent—equivalent to 18–106 million full-time jobs—by 2030. This reduction would be mainly due to less demand for animal production. However, they also projected that horticulture sectors would require an additional 18–56 million full-time workers to meet increased demand for fruits, vegetables, legumes, and other plant-based foods.
The overall transition could lower global labour costs by between US $290 billion and $995 billion per year (adjusted for purchasing power parity), which amounts to roughly 0.2–0.6 percent of global GDP.
Dr Marco Springmann commented: "Dietary change doesn’t just affect our health and the planet - it also has a big impact on people’s livelihoods. Moving away from meat-heavy diets reduces the need for labour in animal production but increases demand in horticulture and food services. Consistent strategies and political support will be needed to enable just transitions both into and out of agricultural labour."
The authors emphasize that while these changes might lead to greater efficiency in food systems, careful policy planning is required to ensure fair outcomes for workers affected by these shifts. They highlight retraining programs, redeployment initiatives, and investment in horticultural industries as important steps to support rural communities during this transition.
Further details can be found in the full paper published in The Lancet Planetary Health.