The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultation with Uruguay, following discussions on the country’s recent economic performance and policy outlook. The Uruguayan authorities have agreed to make public the staff report prepared for this consultation.
Uruguay’s economy experienced a 3.1 percent growth rate in 2024, driven by recovery in agricultural production after a previous drought and increased inbound tourism. This contributed to an improved external position. The unemployment rate decreased, and inflation dropped to 4.2 percent in August 2025, falling below the central bank's target. With declining inflation expectations, the central bank began easing monetary policy in July.
In 2024, the fiscal deficit for the central government—including social security—rose to 3.2 percent of GDP, leading to activation of a fiscal rule escape clause. A new administration took office in March 2025 with plans focused on balancing inclusive growth and macroeconomic stability.
Looking ahead, domestic demand and exports are expected to support real GDP growth of 2.5 percent in 2025 as real wages recover post-pandemic and tourism remains strong. Inflation is projected to align around the central bank’s target of 4.5 percent alongside gradual monetary policy easing. The current account deficit is forecasted to widen slightly to 1.7 percent of GDP over the medium term but remains consistent with economic fundamentals.
The IMF noted that Uruguay continues to be vulnerable to shifts in commodity prices, global financial conditions, and regional developments; however, ample liquidity buffers and favorable borrowing terms limit near-term fiscal risks.
Following their assessment, IMF Executive Directors recognized Uruguay’s resilience against external shocks due to sound macroeconomic policies: “Executive Directors highlighted the resilience of Uruguay’s economy to external shocks, which has been supported by sound macroeconomic policies. They welcomed the authorities’ progress in upgrading the fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, which will further buttress economic stability, and underscored the importance of sustaining the reform momentum to boost sustainable and inclusive growth.”
Directors also acknowledged Uruguay’s commitment to prudent fiscal management: “Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to prudent fiscal policy and their five year budget plan to reduce the deficit and stabilize debt in the medium term.” They emphasized implementing fiscal rules steadily despite an expected increase in deficit during 2025 due to inertia: “Noting that the fiscal deficit is expected to increase in 2025 due to fiscal inertia, they emphasized the importance of steadfast implementation of the fiscal rule.”
Regarding monetary policy stance: “Directors concurred that the monetary policy stance has been appropriately tight. They encouraged the authorities to maintain this stance until inflation expectations and inflationary pressures have firmly converged to target.” Directors praised improvements at Uruguay’s central bank while recommending stronger legal independence for credibility purposes.
On financial sector health: “Directors noted that the banking sector remains sound, well capitalized, and profitable.” They supported continued efforts towards regulatory strengthening including actions aligned with Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) recommendations from 2022.
For structural reforms aimed at boosting productivity: “Directors recommended structural reforms to revitalize growth and boost productivity.” Recommendations included enhancing education outcomes, leveraging artificial intelligence readiness, improving competitiveness through streamlined business regulations/trade facilitation/removal of bottlenecks—and encouraging labor force participation along with migrant integration.
Selected economic indicators show GDP reached $81 billion USD (trillions of pesos: 3.3) in 2024; per capita income was $23,186; population stood at about 3.5 million; poverty rate was estimated at 17.3%; key exports included cellulose products as well as beef/soybeans; main export markets were China, Brazil, US, EU; literacy rate was reported at nearly universal levels (99%).
Further details about Article IV consultations can be found on the IMF website. Publication of documents related to member countries requires consent from those members; Uruguay has agreed for its staff report publication on the IMF's page for Uruguay.
At conclusion of these discussions each year or as scheduled under Article IV procedures—explained here—the Deputy Managing Director summarizes board views for transmission back to national authorities.