Germany is witnessing a significant political shift as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) gains ground in national polls, surpassing the CDU/CSU parties. In a recent survey by Insa for "Bild am Sonntag," the AfD reached 27 percent, marking a new high point. This trend has been building since the federal election in February when the AfD secured 20.8 percent of the vote and became the second-largest party in parliament.
Bernd Baumann, the AfD's first parliamentary secretary in the Bundestag, said, "We want to force the CDU to return to normal." The party's definition of "normal" includes policies such as closing borders and leaving the EU. Baumann claims that a majority of voters desire different policies.
Social scientist Ulf Bohmann from Chemnitz Technical University suggests that attributing the AfD's rise solely to government dissatisfaction is an oversimplification. He points out that societal unease over issues like climate change and economic inequality plays a significant role. According to Bohmann, "A major driver is concern: about climate change, unequal income and wealth distribution, fear of social decline."
The AfD capitalizes on these concerns by focusing on broad issues and appealing to emotions without offering concrete solutions. This strategy appears effective despite internal contradictions within the party on economic and defense policies.
Bohmann advises centrist parties to address public dissatisfaction directly rather than adopting AfD's demands. He warns that mimicking AfD policies could strengthen them further.
As eastern state elections approach next year in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where polls show nearly 40 percent support for the AfD, CDU/CSU faces strategic challenges. They may need to consider forming broad coalitions or risk minority governments dependent on right-wing votes.
Baumann emphasized their ongoing strategy against CDU/CSU: "Our goal is not to eliminate the CDU. But we want it to continue to lose substance so that it comes to its senses." Despite increasing radicalism in its rhetoric, including terms like "remigration," which Bohmann notes were once confined to extremist circles, this does not seem to deter dissatisfied voters.
The rise of right-wing populism is not unique to Germany but part of a broader European trend. As Bohmann observes, "The dissatisfaction is being fueled by right-wing populist and right-wing extremist forces – we see this everywhere in Europe."
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