An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Nathan Porter concluded a visit to Doha, Qatar, from September 8 to 17, 2025. The purpose of the visit was to discuss recent economic and financial sector developments, assess the outlook for the country, and review the government’s plans.
Following the mission, Porter issued a statement highlighting Qatar’s continued economic resilience. He noted that this strength is supported by forward-looking policies and significant hydrocarbon resources. Porter said, “Qatar’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by forward-looking policies and large hydrocarbon wealth. The government is actively advancing reforms under its ambitious Third National Development Strategy (NDS3), which focuses on accelerating diversification, enhancing competitiveness, boosting productivity, and promoting climate sustainability. The planned expansion of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production in the North Field will further strengthen Qatar’s position as a key global energy supplier and support both fiscal and external balances. Sound macroeconomic management and financial stability, combined with significant financial resources, continue to provide important buffers against shocks. Qatar’s sovereign credit spreads remain around their lowest levels in over a decade.”
Porter also emphasized that maintaining these strengths is essential for protecting Qatar’s economic outlook amid potential risks such as fluctuations in global energy prices or disruptions to trade routes. “Preserving these strengths is crucial to protect Qatar’s outlook against risks on the horizon. Fluctuations in global energy prices, heightened global uncertainty, and possible disruptions to trade routes pose challenges to Qatar’s export earnings, fiscal revenues, and economic activity. Making progress towards Qatar’s national development goals while navigating this uncertain environment requires maintaining sound policies and proactive risk management,” he said.
The IMF expects favorable prospects for Qatar's economy moving forward. According to Porter: “The outlook remains favorable. Growth recovered to 2.4 percent in 2024, driven by faster non-hydrocarbon growth at 3.4 percent. Tourism remained strong, with visitor arrivals rising nearly 30 percent and high hotel occupancy. Robust non-hydrocarbon growth of more than 4 percent is expected in 2025, consistent with sound growth in 2025H1 and strong PMI readings. Overall growth over the medium term is projected to average 4 percent reflecting the North Field expansion, which will significantly increase LNG production, and implementation of NDS3.”
Inflation has remained moderate despite robust economic activity: “Moderate inflation is expected despite robust economic growth. Headline inflation was 1.3 percent in 2024 and remained negligible in the first half of 2025, reflecting subdued increases in food, housing, and hospitality costs. Core inflation declined steadily from 2½ percent in 2024 to 1.3 percent in the first half of 2025. The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) continues to align its policy rates closely with that of the US Federal Reserve. Base effects are expected to raise inflation above 2.5 percent in 2026 before it stabilizes around 2 percent over the medium term.”
Porter reported ongoing twin surpluses: “Twin external and fiscal surpluses are expected to continue. The current account remained strong in 2024, posting a surplus exceeding 17 percent of GDP... The surplus remained solid in the first quarter of 2025 at 15.6 percent of GDP... The anticipated direct impact of US tariffs is limited due to the exemption of hydrocarbon exports.”
Fiscal performance showed some moderation due to lower hydrocarbon revenues: “With lower hydrocarbon revenues, the overall fiscal surplus declined to 0.7 percent of GDP in 2024... Central government debt declined to approximately 40 percent of GDP... Provided fiscal prudence is maintained, twin current account and fiscal surpluses are expected to continue over the medium term.”
On banking sector stability: “Banks continue to demonstrate strong capitalization, liquidity, and profitability... Recent stress tests conducted by the QCB suggest that banks maintain adequate buffers... Reliance on external funding remains a vulnerability... Looking ahead, the North Field LNG expansion project ... should bolster credit demand over coming years.”
The IMF team also acknowledged progress on structural reforms under NDS3: “The ongoing implementation of NDS3 is facilitating a transition towards a private sector-led ... more diversified ... economy... Significant progress has been made in enhancing ... expatriate workers [rights], attracting skilled talent ... Policies are being developed ... Progress in digitalization ... authorities also remain committed to their climate action agenda.”
During their visit in Doha, IMF staff met with Minister of Finance Ali bin Ahmed Al Kuwari; QCB Governor Sheikh Bandar bin Mohammed bin Saud Al Thani; other senior officials; as well as representatives from private sector organizations.
“The mission thanks the authorities for their hospitality... We look forward to continuing the dialogue ahead of the Article IV Consultation,” Porter concluded.