Miami has the highest bubble risk among major global cities, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2025. The study, released by UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office, identifies Tokyo and Zurich as other cities with high bubble risk. Los Angeles, Geneva, Amsterdam, and Dubai also show elevated risk levels. Dubai and Madrid experienced the largest increases in bubble risk since the previous edition of the index.
Moderate risks are observed in Sydney, Vancouver, Toronto, Madrid, Frankfurt, and Munich. Cities like London, Paris, Milan, Hong Kong, San Francisco, New York and São Paulo are classified as low-risk markets for housing bubbles. São Paulo has the lowest risk among all cities analyzed.
Matthias Holzhey from UBS Global Wealth Management commented on recent trends: “Broad exuberance has faded, with average bubble risk in major cities falling for a third straight year.” He noted that cities identified as high-risk in 2021—including Frankfurt, Paris, Toronto, Hong Kong or Vancouver—have seen inflation-adjusted price declines of nearly 20% from their peaks following interest rate increases. In contrast, cities with lower imbalances experienced average price drops of about 5%.
Despite an overall cooling trend in global housing markets over the past five years, some cities have diverged. Dubai and Miami led with real price growth around 50%. Tokyo and Zurich followed at 35% and nearly 25%, respectively. Madrid recorded a 14% increase compared to last year.
The report highlights affordability challenges in several urban centers. In Hong Kong—the least affordable city—a buyer needs about 14 years’ income to purchase a typical apartment of 60 square meters (650 square feet). Price-to-income ratios exceed ten in Tokyo, Paris and London as well. For skilled service workers globally, affordable living space is now roughly 30% smaller than it was in 2021.
Maciej Skoczek from UBS Global Wealth Management explained that rising property prices often prompt regulatory responses: “Tougher rules, from new taxes to outright purchase bans to rent control measures, have dimmed the appeal of once sought-after markets such as Vancouver, Sydney, Amsterdam, Paris, New York, Singapore and London.”
Looking ahead at market drivers beyond local regulation or affordability issues alone: public debt is rising worldwide—a trend which could renew demand for real estate assets if investors seek positive real returns during periods of financial repression. Central banks are expected to reduce policy rates by 2026; this may gradually lower financing costs for buyers while limited supply continues to support prices in many urban centers.
The report provides details on specific markets:
In Miami home values have appreciated more than any other city studied over the past fifteen years—averaging over five percent annual growth after inflation—but momentum slowed recently due to increased inventory and higher maintenance costs. International demand remains strong for luxury properties.
Tokyo’s inflation-adjusted home prices are up by about thirty-five percent over five years while incomes have risen only modestly; international migration is driving population growth but affordability is declining further.
Zurich’s home purchase prices are sixty percent higher than a decade ago; values have grown much faster than rents or incomes but investor compensation for long-term risks remains limited.
Dubai saw double-digit real price gains since mid-2023; prices are now fifty percent above five-year-ago levels amid strong immigration-driven population growth that strains supply.
London’s real home prices remain below their peaks from both 2016 and before the global financial crisis; bubble risk has declined further even though rental pressure persists due to low housing starts.
Frankfurt apartment prices stabilized after a downturn but remain twenty percent below their mid-2022 peak; tight supply supports both rents and sale prices going forward.
UBS Switzerland AG conducted this analysis as part of its broader wealth management services. The company manages $6.6 trillion in invested assets as of Q2 2025 across more than fifty countries worldwide.