Tajikistan has made significant progress in reducing poverty over the past decade, according to a new report from the World Bank. The Tajikistan Poverty and Equity Assessment shows that the national poverty rate fell from 56% in 2010 to about 20% in 2024. During this period, the proportion of people considered middle class increased from 8% to 33%.
The report highlights that between 2021 and 2023, around 35% of households moved into the middle class. These changes align with Tajikistan’s National Development Strategy 2030, which aims to increase the middle class to half of the population and reduce poverty below 10%.
Despite these gains, job creation within Tajikistan remains limited. The recent improvements are largely attributed to wage growth in existing jobs and remittances sent from abroad rather than new employment opportunities at home. This reliance on external factors is not seen as sustainable and contributes to income disparities, especially in rural areas where poor infrastructure restricts access to markets and limits economic participation.
Labor force participation remains low across the country. As of 2022, only about 40% of working-age people were active in the labor market—one of the lowest rates among Central Asian and lower middle-income countries. Women are particularly affected, with just 21% participating in the workforce.
Education also poses challenges for future growth. Many students leave school without skills needed for modern jobs, resulting in continued low-wage employment. In 2023, about 31% of children were out of school, especially older students—a trend linked to financial constraints, long distances to schools, and parental attitudes.
Without targeted investment in education and training programs, future labor migrants may face more difficulties finding work abroad while those who stay may struggle with low-paying jobs.
“Tajikistan’s progress in reducing poverty is impressive, but sustaining and deepening these gains requires a shift in focus,” said Ms. Wei Winnie Wang, Acting Country Manager for the World Bank Group in Tajikistan. “To sustain progress and build a more inclusive and resilient economy, Tajikistan needs to transition from a migration-driven model to one that prioritizes domestic job creation, reduces spatial inequalities, and strengthens investments in upskilling people. By focusing on these areas, the country can ensure that prosperity is homegrown, resilient, and shared by all citizens.”
The report recommends reforms such as transforming agriculture by easing crop restrictions and adopting weather-resilient technologies; encouraging private sector job creation in sectors like agro-processing and services; improving rural education; expanding vocational training; upgrading infrastructure; and strengthening social protection programs like Targeted Social Assistance.
“The findings of the Poverty and Equity Assessment will provide essential input for the monitoring and design of national development programs in Tajikistan,” said Mr. Nuriddinzoda Akhliddin Nuriddin, Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan.“With technical support from the World Bank, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, together with the Agency for Statistics, have been at the forefront of establishing and running the Council for Middle-class Expansion that serves as a platform for discussing and developing approaches to poverty and middle-class measurement, as well as policies aimed at further reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity in Tajikistan."
The World Bank Group continues its involvement by financing projects aimed at supporting development efforts within Tajikistan through its International Development Association (IDA) portfolio totaling $1.9 billion across 26 projects. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) supports seven private sector clients with investments exceeding $70 million.