Swiss Re has released new research indicating that the adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could significantly reduce mortality rates in the United States and United Kingdom over the next two decades. According to Swiss Re's optimistic scenario, these medications could lower all-cause mortality by up to 6.4% in the US by 2045, while a reduction of 5.1% is forecast for the UK within the same period.
Paul Murray, CEO Life&Health Reinsurance at Swiss Re, stated: "GLP-1 drugs hold significant promise to help us beat the obesity epidemic. Our research underscores that the full benefit will come from going beyond medication. As insurers, we are in a position to build partnerships, support policy and encourage people to make meaningful lifestyle changes with a focus on prevention. If we get this right, we can strengthen the insurance safety net and contribute to people living longer, healthier lives."
The report highlights that both countries face high obesity rates—over 40% among adults in the US and around 30% in the UK—which have contributed to stalled progress in life expectancy. Obesity is linked to seven of the ten leading causes of death in high-income nations.
The research suggests that for GLP-1 drugs to reach their full potential in reducing mortality, there must be widespread uptake, sustained use with minimal side effects, and most importantly, lasting lifestyle changes such as improved nutrition and increased physical activity. Without these factors, previous studies indicate patients may regain lost weight within a year after discontinuing treatment.
In less favorable scenarios where uptake is limited or patients discontinue due to side effects or lack of long-term commitment, Swiss Re projects more modest reductions: just 2.3% for US mortality and 1.8% for UK by 2045.
Natalie Kelly, Head of L&H Global Underwriting, Claims and R&D at Swiss Re said: “GLP-1drugs could be the medical innovation we've been waiting for to reshape mortality trends. The flow-on effect for underwriting assumptions and claims patterns could therefore be significant. It is essential that insurers keep ahead of the GLP-1 evolution, and maintain a robust, evidence-based approach to assessing the risks."
The study also outlines baseline projections based on moderate uptake and some ongoing lifestyle change: under this scenario cumulative mortality reductions are estimated at 4% for the US and 3.2% for the UK by 2045.
The report titled "The future of metabolic health and weight loss drugs" is available at swissre.com.
Swiss Re notes that its findings rely on information from reliable sources but cautions readers about placing undue reliance on forward-looking statements.