The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed its 2025 Article IV Consultation with Belize, according to an announcement from Washington, DC. The consultation process involved IMF staff visiting Belize to gather economic and financial data and engage with local officials about the country’s economic policies and developments. The resulting staff report will be published soon, as the Belizean authorities have agreed to its release on the IMF website.
Belize has shown a significant economic recovery following the pandemic, with real GDP expanding by 30.6 percent between 2021 and 2023 and growing by 8.1 percent in 2024. This growth was attributed to positive trends in tourism, trade, and transport sectors. Inflation rates have moderated, dropping from 4.0 percent in May 2024 to 1.0 percent in May 2025 due to slowing price increases across most categories.
Government finances have also improved, with a primary balance of 1.7 percent of GDP recorded for fiscal year 2024, supported by strong nominal growth, expenditure controls, and higher government revenues. Public debt declined sharply from a peak of 103.3 percent of GDP in 2020 to 61.1 percent in 2024. Contributing factors included a debt-for-marine protection swap and a negotiated discount on Petrocaribe-related debt.
Looking ahead, real GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.5 percent in 2025 because of weaker tourism activity and agricultural sector performance. Medium-term growth is expected to stabilize around two percent unless there are expansions in hotel or flight capacity. Inflation is forecasted to converge at about 1.3 percent while the current account deficit is anticipated to narrow gradually over the medium term.
International reserves are projected to increase from covering three-and-a-half months of imports in 2024 to four months but are expected to remain below the IMF’s reserve adequacy metric through 2030.
Risks identified for Belize’s outlook include global policy uncertainty, rising trade barriers, persistent high interest rates internationally, and climate-related disasters; however, successful completion of large infrastructure projects could support higher medium-term growth.
The IMF Executive Board welcomed Belize’s post-pandemic recovery and noted improvements in social outcomes and financial stability:
"Executive Directors welcomed the strong recovery following the Covid-19 pandemic and the improved social outcomes and financial stability. Directors highlighted that growth is expected to decelerate sharply in 2025, before converging to its potential over the medium term. Noting the downside risks stemming from high exposure to external risks and increased global uncertainty, Directors stressed the need to reduce public debt and accelerate reforms to unlock potential growth and build resilience to natural disasters. As a small developing country with capacity constraints, they agreed on the importance of continued tailored policy advice and technical assistance to support implementation in Belize."
Directors commended efforts aimed at building buffers against future shocks:
"Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to building buffers against future shocks, particularly by lowering public debt to below 50 percent of GDP. They recommended enhanced revenue mobilization and reprioritization of current expenditure, including through pension reform, to make space for priority spending on targeted social programs, crime prevention, and infrastructure. Establishing a medium term fiscal framework with clear targets and measures would improve credibility and pave the way for an effective Fiscal Responsibility Law."
On monetary policy measures:
"Directors agreed that continued reserves accumulation would help strengthen the credibility of the currency peg. Further fiscal consolidation, structural reforms to enhance competitiveness, and continued efforts to reduce the central bank’s holdings of government securities are important measures."
Financial system stability was another area addressed:
"Directors welcomed the decline in systemic risks and encouraged continued commitment and vigilance to maintain financial stability. They highlighted the need to expedite the operationalization of the Deposit Insurance Act to enhance the financial safety net. Directors also agreed on the importance of improving private sector access to financing to boost investment. They highlighted the considerable progress on strengthening the AML/CFT framework and called for continued efforts to address remaining gaps."
Regarding structural reforms:
"Directors agreed that continued efforts to accelerate growth enhancing structural reforms are necessary to boost potential growth. They recommended measures to address structural barriers, increase female labor force participation, address capacity constraints in the tourism sector, and improve the business climate. Measures to further enhance Belize’s resilience to natural disasters remain essential."
Belize's population was estimated at approximately 411 thousand people as of 2024 with an unemployment rate at just over two percent that same year; multidimensional poverty affected roughly one-fifth of residents.
Under Article IV consultations—conducted annually—the IMF reviews each member country’s economic situation through direct engagement before preparing reports discussed by its Executive Board (https://www.imf.org/en/About/Factsheets/Sheets/2016/07/27/13/31/Article-IV-Consultations). Publication of these documents requires member consent; Belize has approved publication for this cycle (https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2016/12/31/Public-Information-Notice-IMF-Concludes-Article-IV-Consultation-with-Belize-19297).
A summary statement reflecting views expressed during Board discussions is shared with national authorities after each consultation (http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm).