The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded its 2025 Article IV consultation with Vietnam on September 8, 2025. The Vietnamese authorities have requested more time to consider the publication of the accompanying Staff Report.
Vietnam's economy saw significant growth in 2024, with GDP rising by 7.1 percent, supported by strong exports, resilient foreign direct investment, and favorable policies. This trend continued into the first half of 2025, as economic activity increased by 7.5 percent year-over-year. Contributing factors included frontloaded exports, faster credit expansion, and substantial one-off government spending. Inflation reached 3.6 percent year-over-year in June but remained below target levels. In 2024, Vietnam’s current account surplus climbed to a record 6.6 percent of GDP.
Looking ahead, Vietnam's economic outlook depends on ongoing trade negotiations and is influenced by global uncertainties related to trade policies and broader economic conditions. Growth is expected to slow to 6.5 percent in 2025 and further decrease in 2026 due to new U.S. tariffs announced in July and the phasing out of most one-time government stimulus measures.
Risks remain elevated for Vietnam’s economy. Global trade tensions or tighter financial conditions could impact exports and investment negatively. Domestically, there are concerns about potential financial stress from stricter financial conditions and high corporate debt levels. However, successful implementation of infrastructure projects and structural reforms could enhance medium-term growth prospects.
The IMF Executive Directors generally agreed with the staff’s assessment of Vietnam’s economy: “They welcomed that, despite increased external and domestic volatility, economic growth has been remarkably resilient helped by supportive policies.” At the same time, Directors warned that Vietnam's export-led growth model faces challenges from shifting global trade dynamics, an aging population, tightening international financial conditions, and climate change.
“They emphasized that policies should focus on maintaining economic resilience and financial stability, while promoting reforms to sustain robust, diversified, and stable medium‑term growth,” according to the summary provided after the Board discussion.
Directors recommended that policy approaches remain adaptable given an uncertain environment: “Given available fiscal space, fiscal policy could be more prominent in prudently supporting economic activity especially with temporary and targeted support if needed.” They noted limited room for monetary easing and called for close monitoring of inflation and exchange rate risks amid strong credit expansion.
On fiscal management: “Directors emphasized that strengthening the medium‑term fiscal framework is crucial for reaping the growth dividends from the planned large public investment while safeguarding debt sustainability.” Recommendations included upgrading public investment management systems and improving revenue collection processes.
Regarding financial sector stability: “Directors underscored the need to bolster the financial sector’s resilience against shocks,” calling for stronger liquidity positions at banks along with improvements in crisis preparedness frameworks.
The Directors also welcomed reform efforts underway in Vietnam but stressed implementation: “They called for actions to raise productivity... including improving the business environment and reforming capital and labor markets.” Further suggestions involved increasing domestic demand through infrastructure upgrades and enhancing social safety nets while encouraging greater trade diversification.
A point was made regarding external balances: “More emphasis should be placed on discussing the impact of the policy mix on Vietnam’s external imbalances and required policy responses.”
It is anticipated that the next IMF Article IV consultation with Vietnam will occur on a standard annual cycle.