The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has concluded its Post-Financing Assessment (PFA) with Angola, according to an announcement from Washington, DC on September 5, 2025. The Angolan authorities have agreed to publish the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
Angola’s economy showed strong performance in 2024, with real GDP growth reaching 4.4 percent. This growth was attributed to robust oil production and a revitalized non-oil sector. The country’s current account surplus increased to 5.4 percent of GDP, and gross international reserves rose to $15.8 billion, equivalent to 7.7 months of import cover. This improvement was largely due to a rebound in oil exports and reduced imports. Inflation decreased from a peak of 31.1 percent in July 2024 to 19.5 percent in July 2025 and is expected to continue declining gradually over the medium term. The public debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 60 percent in 2024 as a result of higher nominal GDP growth and continued fiscal primary surpluses.
Despite these gains, Angola experienced a decline in oil revenues and tighter external financial conditions during the first half of 2025. The fiscal position deteriorated due to lower oil prices and challenges in oil production, with the overall fiscal deficit projected to widen from 1.0 percent of GDP in 2024 to 2.8 percent in 2025. Near-term financing pressures remain high because of significant maturing external debt.
Growth is expected to slow down temporarily due to external factors but is projected to recover to about three percent over the medium term as structural reforms and diversification efforts continue. Angolan authorities have stated their commitment to prudent debt management and risk-mitigation measures aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustainable growth.
The IMF assessed Angola’s capacity to repay as adequate but noted that risks have increased since last year. In a scenario where oil production challenges persist and oil price pressures rise, repayment indicators would weaken further.
The IMF Executive Board welcomed Angola’s economic progress but pointed out that vulnerabilities have intensified recently because of falling oil prices and domestic production issues.
“Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed Angola’s stronger than expected economic performance in 2024 with strong growth and inflation deceleration, supported by a rebound in the oil sector and revitalized non‑oil growth. However, Directors noted that vulnerabilities have recently intensified, driven by oil price declines and challenges in domestic oil production. They urged the authorities to pursue prudent macroeconomic policies and sustained reform efforts to address these challenges, and supported continued engagement with the Fund.”
Directors highlighted that while Angola's capacity for repayment remains adequate, it is subject to heightened risks stemming from increased external debt service obligations, greater volatility in oil prices, and weaker fiscal outlooks.
“Directors concurred that Angola’s capacity to repay the Fund remains adequate but subject to risks. They noted that risks, however, have increased from last year due to sizable external debt service, increased volatility in oil prices, and weaker outlook for fiscal and external balances. They emphasized that prompt and credible policy adjustments are needed to mitigate emerging risks, safeguard macroeconomic stability, and strengthen debt sustainability, and they welcomed the authorities’ readiness to adjust policies in this regard.”
With declining oil revenues projected for coming years—Angola's average crude price per barrel dropped from $78.5 in 2024 toward $66–62 through 2026—directors called for expenditure rationalization as well as advancement on fuel subsidy reform by 2028 alongside measures protecting vulnerable populations.
“Given declining oil revenues, Directors highlighted the need to rationalize expenditures to preserve fiscal space and contain borrowing. Noting the delay to 2028, they emphasized the importance of advancing the fuel subsidy reform, accompanied by measures to protect the most vulnerable and a strong communication strategy.”
Directors also acknowledged improvements made in mobilizing non-oil revenue consistent with IMF technical assistance programs https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/AGO , encouraging further progress on this front.
They underscored accelerating Public Financial Management reforms as essential for increasing transparency https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/AGO , preventing arrears accumulation, improving spending efficiency; continuing prudent debt management; prioritizing low-cost financing options; avoiding reliance on short-term costly financing; mobilizing donor funds for development spending; using exchange rate flexibility as a shock absorber; limiting foreign exchange interventions; sustaining disinflationary monetary policy stances; strengthening financial system oversight including systemic risk supervision by Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA); completing planned financial system assessments; enhancing anti-money laundering frameworks; exiting FATF grey list status; improving business climate/governance frameworks under national development strategies aligned with African Union goals http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm .
Sources: Angolan authorities; IMF staff estimates/projections.