Australia’s horticulture sector is expected to continue its growth into 2025–26, with forecasts indicating the industry’s value will rise from $18.2 billion in 2024–25 to $19 billion. This positions horticulture ahead of both the cattle and wheat sectors in terms of value.
Export earnings are projected to reach $4.4 billion, maintaining a trend of surpassing the $4 billion mark, largely driven by demand from Asian markets. Michael Whitehead, ANZ Executive Director of Agribusiness Insights, stated: “Whether it’s almonds, grapes, citrus or cherries, Australian produce is earning a strong reputation for quality in the world’s fastest-growing markets.
“Maintaining that edge will require constant investment in water, labour and biosecurity, as well as a sharper focus on efficiency and innovation across the supply chain.”
Almonds remain the leading horticultural export for Australia, with China and India being major destinations. The country has become the second-largest almond producer globally, although water limitations may affect future growth. Table grape exports are increasing again due to demand from China, Vietnam and Indonesia. Citrus growers have seen high export volumes for mandarins.
Cherries and berries produced in Tasmania and Queensland are performing well in high-value Asian markets. Avocado exports have also improved following an earlier oversupply domestically.
Vegetable exports—including carrots, onions and leafy greens—are strengthening their presence in Southeast Asia. This is attributed to efficient shipping logistics and Australia’s reputation for food safety.
Labour availability has improved since pandemic disruptions due to initiatives like the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme. However, wage costs remain high. Fertiliser and energy expenses have decreased from their 2022 highs but still exceed pre-pandemic levels.
The global outlook is influenced by growing middle-class demand in Asia but faces challenges from increased competition with countries such as Chile, Peru, South Africa and the United States. Ongoing risks include biosecurity threats like fruit fly and varroa mite infestations as well as climate variability.
“The sector has never been stronger. The challenge now is to stay ahead — protecting Australia’s premium reputation and capturing the growth opportunities offered by both domestic and export markets,” Mr Whitehead said.
More details are available in ANZ’s Agri InFocus report for Spring 2025.