Cattle prices in Australia have increased across all categories, according to the latest Agri InFocus report from ANZ. The rise is attributed to recent rainfall in southern regions and strong demand from northern lot feeders.
The report identifies the Female Slaughter Rate (FSR) as a key indicator of destocking over the past year, which has led to a surge in restocker demand. In Victoria, 76 percent of cattle slaughtered so far this year have been females, while Queensland’s figure stands at 34 percent. This difference highlights the effect of challenging seasonal conditions in southern states, where producers are now rebuilding their herds.
Restocker prices have experienced significant growth over the past year and are now about 35 percent higher than at this time last year. Improved weather conditions in southern New South Wales and parts of Victoria have allowed producers who previously reduced breeding stock or sold young cattle to return to the market, increasing demand.
ANZ Associate Director of Agribusiness Insights, Alanna Barrett, commented on producer sentiment heading into Spring: “Fully stocked cattle producers have every reason to be optimistic. With price increases across both heavy and lighter categories, the outlook for the industry is very positive,” Ms Barrett said.
International trade factors are also impacting Australian cattle markets. A new tariff of 76.4 percent on Brazilian beef entering the United States has shifted attention within global markets. So far this year through June, Australia has accounted for an average 24 percent share of US beef imports, while Brazil holds about an 18 percent share that is growing. As Brazilian beef faces higher tariffs in the US market, it is expected that more Brazilian product will be redirected toward China, increasing competition for Australian exporters there due to Brazil’s lower prices.
“In this environment, Australia’s reputation for quality, consistency, and safety will be critical in maintaining consumer preference and market share. We expect trade redirection rather than a net increase in demand, with Brazilian beef shifting toward China and the U.S. potentially increasing its reliance on Australian supply,” Ms Barrett said.
Domestically, continued strong demand from lot feeders is supporting prices further. Australia’s feedlot capacity currently stands at 1.5 million head with larger operations continuing to expand production capacity.
Additional information can be found in ANZ’s Agri InFocus Commodity Insights report for Spring 2025.