A new study led by the University of Cambridge has used stalagmites from a cave in Mexico’s Yucatán region to reconstruct detailed rainfall patterns during the Terminal Classic period of Maya civilization, between 871 and 1021 CE. The research, published in Science Advances, marks the first time scientists have been able to isolate wet and dry season rainfall for this era, which is associated with significant societal changes often called the Maya collapse.
By analyzing oxygen isotopes in the stalagmite, researchers determined that there were eight wet-season droughts lasting at least three years each within this period. The longest drought continued for 13 consecutive years. This data matches historical and archaeological records showing that monument construction and political activity at several major northern Maya sites, including Chichén Itzá, ceased at various times during these prolonged dry spells.
“It hasn’t been possible to directly compare the history of individual Maya sites with what we previously knew about the climate record,” said Daniel H. James, now a postdoctoral researcher at University College London (UCL). “Lake sediment is great when you want to look at the big picture, but stalagmites allow us to access the fine-grained detail that we’ve been missing.”
Previous studies using lake sediments provided broader views of drought severity but lacked year-by-year resolution. The Cambridge-led team was able to achieve greater precision due to thick annual layers—about one millimeter—in the stalagmite they studied. These layers allowed them to identify wet-season droughts specifically.
“This doesn’t necessarily mean that the Maya abandoned Chichén Itzá during these periods of severe drought, but it’s likely that they had more immediate things to worry about than constructing monuments, such as whether the crops they relied on would succeed or not,” James added.
The findings offer a new framework for examining how climate events corresponded with societal changes in ancient Mesoamerica. Researchers believe further analysis of stalagmites from other caves could provide additional insights into not only drought frequency but also tropical storm activity during this pivotal period.
“In addition to what stalagmites can tell us about this period in Maya history, they might also be able to tell us about the frequency and severity of tropical storms, for instance,” said James. “As a case study for fine-grained comparisons between climate and historical data, it’s exciting being able to apply methods usually associated with the deeper past to relatively recent history.”
The project received support from both the National Geographic Society and the Leverhulme Trust.
Reference: Daniel H. James et al., ‘Classic Maya response to multiyear seasonal droughts in Northwest Yucatán, Mexico.’ Science Advances (2025). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adw7661