Economic activity in Equatorial Guinea showed moderate recovery in 2024, with GDP growing by an estimated 0.9%. The industrial and service sectors contributed significantly to this growth, while the non-hydrocarbon sector expanded, led by manufacturing. However, the hydrocarbon sector continued its decline. Growth on a per-capita basis remains negative, with more than half of Equatoguineans living in poverty and unemployment estimated at about 14%.
The fiscal and external balances worsened in 2024 due to declining hydrocarbon export earnings, highlighting the need for revenue diversification. Government revenues fell by 15%, primarily from lower corporate taxes from oil companies. Spending dropped to 18.5% of GDP due to fiscal consolidation efforts, resulting in a shift from a 2.4% surplus in 2023 to a deficit of 0.6% of GDP. The current account deficit widened as exports fell to 23% of GDP.
Looking ahead, GDP growth is forecasted at -1.2% for 2025-2027 amid global uncertainty and declining hydrocarbon production. Despite this decrease, poverty is expected to reduce slightly due to projected expansion in agriculture and service sectors.
Equatorial Guinea's produced capital surged during the oil boom but has declined since 2014 due to diminishing oil revenues and reduced public investment. Between 1995 and 2020, produced capital increased over one hundredfold thanks to public investments following major oil discoveries.
Education and health outcomes have improved but remain below those of other countries at Equatorial Guinea’s income level. Mean years of schooling rose from 5.9 in 2019 to about eight in 2022 but still fall short compared to upper-middle-income countries (UMICs). Social spending was at 1.9% of GDP in 2024.
Equatorial Guinea’s forests are under threat from rising deforestation rates driven by urbanization, illegal logging, agricultural expansion, and infrastructure development. Forest cover declined from 97% in 2000 to 94.5% in 2020.
Reforms are needed for wealth asset protection and expansion through increased spending on education, skills development, healthcare alignment with fiscal space constraints, revenue diversification, fiscal discipline enhancement, domestic revenue mobilization strengthening, private sector participation promotion alongside governance improvement.