With countries like the UK setting ambitious goals for AI leadership and decarbonization, a new report suggests that AI could lead to a 25-fold increase in the global tech sector's energy use by 2040. The unchecked growth of data centers driven by AI is expected to surge electricity consumption, straining power grids and accelerating carbon emissions.
The University of Cambridge’s Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy released this report, suggesting even conservative estimates predict a five-fold increase in big tech's energy needs over the next 15 years. The authors argue that governments aiming to lead in AI while meeting net zero targets are engaging in "magical thinking."
Researchers call for global standards in reporting AI’s environmental cost through forums such as COP, the UN climate summit. They argue that the UK should advocate for this internationally while ensuring democratic oversight domestically.
Currently, data centers account for nearly 1.5% of global emissions, a figure expected to grow significantly by 2040. In regions like the US, China, and Europe, data centers consume around 2-4% of national electricity.
"We know the environmental impact of AI will be formidable," said Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan from Cambridge’s Minderoo Centre. "The lack of hard data on electricity and water consumption leaves policymakers and researchers in the dark about the climate harms AI might cause."
Some tech giants are turning to nuclear power to address their energy needs. Microsoft has signed a long-term agreement to reactivate Three Mile Island plant. Tech leaders like Eric Schmidt suggest that AI's environmental costs will be offset by its benefits for climate solutions.
"Despite the rapacious energy demands of AI," said Professor Gina Neff from the Minderoo Centre, "tech companies encourage governments to see these technologies as accelerators for the green transition."
The report calls for updates to UK's environmental policies for the 'AI era,' including specific carbon reduction targets for data centers and requirements for detailed reporting of energy consumption.
Professor John Naughton from the Minderoo Centre emphasized that "energy grids are already stretched," highlighting potential trade-offs with increased AI investment.