Howden Re Brazil, in collaboration with climate analytics firm MeteoIA, has released the fifth issue of its Brazil and Global Climate Impacts report. The document analyzes meteorological activity from April to June 2025, focusing on regional disruptions and emerging risks. It also includes a climate forecast leading up to COP30, scheduled for November 2025 in Belém, Brazil.
The report highlights increasing climate variability in Brazil, marked by extreme weather events such as historic rainfall and record-setting frost. These conditions are affecting the country's infrastructure, agriculture, and insurance systems.
"As Brazil prepares to host COP30, the convergence of environmental, social, and economic risks is undeniable," said Antônio Jorge da Mota Rodrigues, Head of Howden Re Brazil. "Reinsurance must play a vital role in developing solutions that go beyond indemnification."
April 2025 saw intense rainfall in Southeast and Central-West regions of Brazil. Teresópolis recorded nearly 700 mm of rain—over six times the monthly norm—while parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo more than doubled their averages.
In May 2025, Rio Grande do Sul experienced flooding reminiscent of severe floods from the previous year. Cities like Cachoeira do Sul and Santa Maria recorded up to 225 mm of rain in a day. Despite federal recovery funds exceeding R$100 billion, infrastructure damage persisted.
Late June brought a powerful extratropical cyclone followed by a polar air mass to Rio Grande do Sul. Temperatures dropped as low as -8°C in Urupema (SC), causing widespread frost across key agricultural regions.
MeteoIA models predict that Brazil's winter will likely feature ENSO-neutral conditions and a positive Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). This combination suggests below-average rainfall in the South and Southeast and above-average temperatures nationwide.
Brazil’s reinsurance market is transitioning from reactive to anticipatory measures. New instruments like parametric insurance for heatwaves are being piloted in major cities. The Q2 report includes a composite risk map for second-crop corn harvests showing high-risk zones.
"The Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy becomes a catalytic instrument for investments considering both physical and financial impacts," added Antônio Jorge da Mota Rodrigues.