Guinea is experiencing accelerated economic growth, but the country faces challenges in making this growth more inclusive and enhancing domestic resource mobilization for long-term development. The second edition of the Guinea Economic Update, released on July 1, 2025, provides a detailed analysis of Guinea's macroeconomic situation and offers insights into how the nation can better manage its resources to meet its development objectives.
The report titled "Domestic Resource Mobilization and Management for Inclusive and Sustainable Development" has a dual focus. It evaluates recent macroeconomic developments and outlines Guinea’s potential to enhance domestic revenue management, particularly with anticipated gains from the Simandou iron ore project.
The first section of the report notes that Guinea's GDP grew by 5.7% in 2024 and is projected to increase to 6.5% in 2025, with an average growth rate of 10% expected between 2026-27. This growth is largely driven by expanding mining activities. Despite these figures, poverty remains high at 52%, as job creation outside the mining sector has been limited.
"In recent years, Guinea has achieved robust growth, primarily fueled by the mining industry and agriculture. Yet, the key challenge remains in transforming growth into employment opportunities for Guineans," said Marilyne Youbi, World Bank Group Economist and Lead Author of the report.
The fiscal deficit is widening—recorded at 4.8% of GDP in 2024—and public debt is increasing due to infrastructure investments coupled with still-limited revenue mobilization. Tax revenues are low at just 13.1% of GDP compared to regional targets, limiting government investment capacity in essential services such as health care, education, and infrastructure.
The second part of the report analyzes Guinea's domestic resource mobilization landscape. It stresses that increasing public revenues from sectors like mining is crucial for fiscal sustainability and economic diversification. The report advocates for stronger tax policy enforcement aligned with existing codes and identifies areas needing reform: enhancing tax audits, improving taxpayer database integrity, ensuring timely tax filings and payments, deepening digital revenue administration processes, and strengthening management of public expenditures.
"This report underscores the urgency of implementing reforms to make growth more inclusive and resilient," stated Issa Diaw, World Bank Group Country Manager for Guinea. "With the Simandou iron ore project poised to transform the economy, Guinea has a narrow window to ensure that the benefits of growth are widely shared."
As Guinea enters this potentially transformative phase in its development journey, there is a call within the report for renewed policy focus on maintaining debt sustainability and macroeconomic stability while investing strategically in human capital development and physical infrastructure.