Conflict and instability are significantly impacting 39 global economies, exacerbating extreme poverty and hunger while hindering progress on development goals, as revealed by a comprehensive World Bank assessment. This report highlights the dire situation in these regions, which are falling behind other economies in key developmental metrics.
Since 2020, these conflict-affected economies have seen their per capita GDP decrease by an average of 1.8% annually, contrasting with a 2.9% increase in other developing economies. This year, 421 million individuals live on less than $3 a day within these troubled areas—exceeding the numbers elsewhere globally. Projections indicate this will rise to 435 million by 2030, representing nearly 60% of the world's extreme poor.
Indermit Gill, Chief Economist at the World Bank Group, stated that "for the last three years, the world’s attention has been on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East." He added that more than 70% of those affected reside in Africa and highlighted that untreated conditions become chronic over time.
The report explains why ending extreme poverty remains elusive due to its concentration in challenging regions. Of the identified economies facing conflict or instability, more than half are engaged in active conflict.
In general developing economies, extreme poverty rates have decreased to single digits—6%. However, this rate is approximately 40% among conflict-afflicted regions. Their GDP-per-capita levels have stagnated around $1,500 annually since 2010. Additionally, these areas struggle to generate sufficient employment to match population growth.
"Economic stagnation—rather than growth—has been the norm," noted M. Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist at the World Bank Group. He emphasized that international support and targeted policies could foster growth and stability.
Conflicts' frequency and severity have surged over recent decades, negatively affecting various development indicators such as life expectancy and infant mortality rates. Conflicts also result in prolonged economic repercussions; high-intensity conflicts typically cause a significant drop in GDP per capita after five years.
Preventative measures against conflicts can be highly beneficial according to the report. It stresses early-warning systems for timely interventions as cost-effective compared to post-violence responses.
Despite challenges faced by these economies, potential advantages exist which could stimulate growth with appropriate policy implementation. These include abundant natural resources and a growing youthful population poised for expansion until mid-century.
However, realizing demographic benefits depends on investments across education sectors alongside creating jobs through a robust private sector infrastructure.
Further insights into this situation can be accessed via the full report provided by The World Bank's website or social media channels for additional information updates regarding ongoing research initiatives related specifically towards fragile situations globally.