Middle market business leaders are showing resilience despite a decline in optimism for the U.S. economy, according to J.P. Morgan's 2025 Business Leaders Outlook Pulse Survey released today. The survey reveals that optimism for the national economy has dropped significantly from 65% in January to 32% in June. Additionally, expectations of a recession have increased, with 25% of respondents anticipating a recession in 2025, up from 8%.
Several external factors are affecting business plans, with 44% of leaders reporting delays. Among those who reported changes, the main factors include policy uncertainty (74%), market volatility (37%), shifts in customer demand (37%), and geopolitical events (35%). The top challenges facing companies are uncertain economic conditions (55%), tariffs (41%), and revenue and sales growth (41%).
Despite reduced economic optimism, confidence in individual business performance remains strong. Many leaders are maintaining their strategic planning without alterations due to external challenges. Forty percent report no changes to their plans, while 14% have accelerated them. A majority of respondents (85%) expect steady or improved company performance by year-end.
Performance expectations include 78% anticipating revenue and sales stability or growth, 73% expecting profits to remain stable or increase, and 37% planning to increase headcount while 45% plan to maintain it.
"Businesses are operating with caution in the current environment," said Matt Sable, Co-Head of J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking. "Leaders are recalibrating where necessary to ensure they can continue to deliver for their clients and communities, highlighting their resilience and determination."
For more information on the survey results, visit J.P. Morgan's website.