An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Paulo Medas, has completed discussions with Vietnamese authorities as part of the 2025 Article IV consultation. The talks took place from June 11 to June 24, 2025, in Hanoi. The IMF team engaged with Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc and senior officials from various government bodies including the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the Ministry of Finance, and the National Assembly. Meetings were also held with private sector representatives, think tanks, and other stakeholders.
At the end of the mission, Medas stated that "the Vietnamese economy rebounded strongly in 2024," achieving a growth rate of 7.1 percent due to robust exports and foreign direct investment. This trend continued into early 2025 with a growth rate of 6.9 percent year-over-year. Inflation remained under control while the current account surplus hit a record high of 6.6 percent of GDP in 2024.
Medas highlighted that "the outlook is heavily dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations" amidst global uncertainties related to trade policies and economic growth. If high tariffs are implemented as projected in the third quarter according to the IMF's April 2025 World Economic Outlook, Vietnam's economic growth may slow to 5.4 percent in 2025 and further decrease in 2026. However, easing global trade tensions could lead to an improved economic outlook.
He warned about "downside risks," including potential escalations in global trade tensions or tightening financial conditions which could affect exports and investment negatively. Domestically, financial stress might resurface due to tighter financial conditions and high corporate debt levels.
Policy priorities should aim at maintaining macro-financial stability while adjusting economically, Medas advised. Fiscal policy should cushion short-term impacts using public debt at low levels under downside scenarios through accelerated public investment implementation and strengthened social safety nets.
The statement suggested that monetary policy should focus on anchoring inflation expectations with limited room for maneuvering: "allowing exchange rate flexibility will be critical as the economy adjusts." Some monetary easing might be considered if global interest rates fall as expected alongside inflation decreases.
Medas emphasized strengthening financial sector soundness by improving bank supervision, building liquidity buffers, enhancing capital reserves, and refining bank resolution frameworks.
"The government’s plans for an ambitious reform agenda are very welcome," said Medas regarding reforms aimed at boosting medium-term growth through institutional efficiency enhancements and increased public investments across sectors such as logistics and energy infrastructure improvements along with better functioning capital markets education systems training programs productivity advancements—all crucial steps toward ensuring sustainable development paths ahead aligned towards sound macro-fiscal strategies safeguarding fiscal health alongside efforts reinforcing governance frameworks targeting anti-money laundering counter-financing terrorism measures addressing statistical gaps supporting policymaking risk management processes underway accordingly."
Medas welcomed the Vietnamese government’s plans for an ambitious reform agenda aimed at boosting medium-term growth. He highlighted the importance of improving institutional efficiency and increasing public investment, especially in infrastructure sectors such as logistics and energy. Reforms to strengthen capital markets, education, and productivity were also noted as essential for supporting sustainable development.
“The team is grateful to the Vietnamese authorities for their warm hospitality and for the open, candid discussions throughout the consultation,” Medas said in conclusion.