A recent study led by researchers at the School of Geography and the Environment reveals that droughts are not solely caused by a lack of rainfall. The research highlights the role of Atmospheric Evaporative Demand (AED), which acts as an "invisible sponge," absorbing moisture from soil, rivers, and plants faster than it can be replenished. As global temperatures rise due to climate change, AED is increasing, leading to more severe drought conditions even in regions with substantial rainfall.
The study titled 'Warming accelerates global drought severity,' published in Nature, emphasizes the importance of including AED in drought monitoring. Dr. Solomon Gebrechorkos stated that relying only on precipitation data is insufficient for managing risks related to agriculture, water resources, energy, and public health. He noted that projected climate changes will likely intensify AED's impact.
Dr. Gebrechorkos explained that this research utilized over a century's worth of high-resolution data and advanced models to assess AED's effect globally. He remarked: "We face a big challenge. There’s no direct way to measure how ‘thirsty’ the atmosphere is over time." By refining methodological approaches, researchers were able to identify regions most affected by rising AED demands.
The study calls for immediate action in developing socio-economic and environmental adaptation strategies along with improved early warning systems for risk management. Dr. Gebrechorkos stressed the need for targeted strategies as many areas already struggle with severe drought conditions.
The findings suggest a shift in focus towards understanding how evaporation and atmospheric demand interact with water supplies rather than just examining rainfall patterns. Future studies are expected to explore how various sectors can adapt to increased atmospheric moisture demands and improve drought prediction through enhanced climate-driven AED fluctuation analysis.
For further details, read 'Warming accelerates global drought severity' in Nature.